Earths Future

(The TQCC of Earths Future is 10. The table below lists those papers that are above that threshold based on CrossRef citation counts [max. 500 papers]. The publications cover those that have been published in the past four years, i.e., from 2019-11-01 to 2023-11-01.)
Twenty‐First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios352
Assessment to China's Recent Emission Pattern Shifts186
Insights From CMIP6 for Australia's Future Climate136
Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa136
Why We Can No Longer Ignore Consecutive Disasters110
Partitioning the Uncertainty of Ensemble Projections of Global Glacier Mass Change90
Increased Flood Exposure Due to Climate Change and Population Growth in the United States86
Regional Climate Sensitivity of Climate Extremes in CMIP6 Versus CMIP5 Multimodel Ensembles81
Identifying a Safe and Just Corridor for People and the Planet69
Iran's Agriculture in the Anthropocene69
Usable Science for Managing the Risks of Sea‐Level Rise67
How Green Transition of Energy System Impacts China's Mercury Emissions64
Causes of the Widespread 2019–2020 Australian Bushfire Season62
Similarities and Differences in the Mechanisms Causing the European Summer Heatwaves in 2003, 2010, and 201861
Event‐Based Storylines to Address Climate Risk60
Integrating the Water Planetary Boundary With Water Management From Local to Global Scales59
Agricultural Development and Land Use Change in India: A Scenario Analysis of Trade‐Offs Between UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)58
Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales58
Seasonality, Intensity, and Duration of Rainfall Extremes Change in a Warmer Climate56
Future Drought in the Dry Lands of Asia Under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C Warming Scenarios55
Climate Change and Changes in Compound Coastal‐Riverine Flooding Hazard Along the U.S. Coasts53
Heat Stress Indicators in CMIP6: Estimating Future Trends and Exceedances of Impact‐Relevant Thresholds53
Increasing Human‐Perceived Heat Stress Risks Exacerbated by Urbanization in China: A Comparative Study Based on Multiple Metrics53
Global CO2 Consumption by Silicate Rock Chemical Weathering: Its Past and Future53
The Anthropocene: Comparing Its Meaning in Geology (Chronostratigraphy) with Conceptual Approaches Arising in Other Disciplines52
TROPOMI NO2 in the United States: A Detailed Look at the Annual Averages, Weekly Cycles, Effects of Temperature, and Correlation With Surface NO2 Concentrations52
Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events52
The Role of Urban Growth in Resilience of Communities Under Flood Risk52
Projected Changes in Socioeconomic Exposure to Heatwaves in South Asia Under Changing Climate51
Analysis of Compound Climate Extremes and Exposed Population in Africa Under Two Different Emission Scenarios51
Future Changes in East Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation and Precipitation Under 1.5 to 5 °C of Warming49
The 2018–2020 Multi‐Year Drought Sets a New Benchmark in Europe47
Nearly Half of Global Vegetated Area Experienced Inconsistent Vegetation Growth in Terms of Greenness, Cover, and Productivity47
Doubling of U.S. Population Exposure to Climate Extremes by 205045
Robustness of CMIP6 Historical Global Mean Temperature Simulations: Trends, Long‐Term Persistence, Autocorrelation, and Distributional Shape45
Tropical Cyclone Compound Flood Hazard Assessment: From Investigating Drivers to Quantifying Extreme Water Levels45
Intercomparison of Magnitudes and Trends in Anthropogenic Surface Emissions From Bottom‐Up Inventories, Top‐Down Estimates, and Emission Scenarios45
“Certain Uncertainty: The Role of Internal Climate Variability in Projections of Regional Climate Change and Risk Management”44
A Framework to Quantify the Uncertainty Contribution of GCMs Over Multiple Sources in Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change44
Future Transboundary Water Stress and Its Drivers Under Climate Change: A Global Study43
Collaborative Modeling With Fine‐Resolution Data Enhances Flood Awareness, Minimizes Differences in Flood Perception, and Produces Actionable Flood Maps42
The State of the Art in Modeling Waterlogging Impacts on Plants: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know39
Responses of Precipitation and Runoff to Climate Warming and Implications for Future Drought Changes in China39
The Value of Initial Condition Large Ensembles to Robust Adaptation Decision‐Making39
Winter Weather Whiplash: Impacts of Meteorological Events Misaligned With Natural and Human Systems in Seasonally Snow‐Covered Regions39
Time Evolution of the Surface Urban Heat Island37
High‐Resolution Data Sets for Global Carbonate and Silicate Rock Weathering Carbon Sinks and Their Change Trends36
Implications of CMIP6 Projected Drying Trends for 21st Century Amazonian Drought Risk35
Global Response Patterns of Major Rainfed Crops to Adaptation by Maintaining Current Growing Periods and Irrigation35
Global Agricultural Water Scarcity Assessment Incorporating Blue and Green Water Availability Under Future Climate Change35
The COVID‐19 Pandemic Not Only Poses Challenges, but Also Opens Opportunities for Sustainable Transformation35
Risky Development: Increasing Exposure to Natural Hazards in the United States34
Exploring the Drivers of Global and Local Sea‐Level Change Over the 21st Century and Beyond34
California's Central Valley Groundwater Wells Run Dry During Recent Drought34
Multisector Dynamics: Advancing the Science of Complex Adaptive Human‐Earth Systems34
High‐Resolution Gridded Population Projections for China Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways33
Capping Human Water Footprints in the World's River Basins33
The Greater Mekong's Climate‐Water‐Energy Nexus: How ENSO‐Triggered Regional Droughts Affect Power Supply and CO2 Emissions32
Tropical Cyclone Frequency31
Unprecedented Drought Challenges for Texas Water Resources in a Changing Climate: What Do Researchers and Stakeholders Need to Know?31
Rising Trends in Heatwave Metrics Across Southern California31
The Value of Urban Flood Modeling31
Future Risks of Unprecedented Compound Heat Waves Over Three Vast Urban Agglomerations in China31
Flood Risks in Sinking Delta Cities: Time for a Reevaluation?31
Heatwaves in Southeast Asia and Their Changes in a Warmer World31
Climate Warming Consistently Reduces Grassland Ecosystem Productivity30
Fates and Use Efficiency of Nitrogen Fertilizer in Maize Cropping Systems and Their Responses to Technologies and Management Practices: A Global Analysis on Field 15N Tracer Studies30
Coastal Migration due to 21st Century Sea‐Level Rise29
Remote Sensing Big Data for Water Environment Monitoring: Current Status, Challenges, and Future Prospects29
Dual Influence of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on the Spatiotemporal Vegetation Dynamics Over the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau From 1981 to 201529
Directions for Research on Climate and Conflict29
Forecasting the Frequency and Magnitude of Postfire Debris Flows Across Southern California28
Demand for Ports to 2050: Climate Policy, Growing Trade and the Impacts of Sea‐Level Rise28
Past Variance and Future Projections of the Environmental Conditions Driving Western U.S. Summertime Wildfire Burn Area28
Cloud‐Nucleating Particles Over the Southern Ocean in a Changing Climate28
Cascading Hazards in the Aftermath of Australia's 2019/2020 Black Summer Wildfires28
Widespread Race and Class Disparities in Surface Urban Heat Extremes Across the United States28
Cold‐Season Arctic Amplification Driven by Arctic Ocean‐Mediated Seasonal Energy Transfer28
Global Change Can Make Coastal Eutrophication Control in China More Difficult28
Can Reservoir Regulation Along the Yellow River Be a Sustainable Way to Save a Sinking Delta?28
Can Exploratory Modeling of Water Scarcity Vulnerabilities and Robustness Be Scenario Neutral?28
Future Climate Change Hotspots Under Different 21st Century Warming Scenarios27
Linking Agricultural GHG Emissions to Global Trade Network27
Path Independence of Carbon Budgets When Meeting a Stringent Global Mean Temperature Target After an Overshoot27
Discovering Dependencies, Trade‐Offs, and Robustness in Joint Dam Design and Operation: An Ex‐Post Assessment of the Kariba Dam27
Assessing River Basin Development Given Water‐Energy‐Food‐Environment Interdependencies27
Assessing Shifts in Regional Hydroclimatic Conditions of U.S. River Basins in Response to Climate Change over the 21st Century27
Global Socioeconomic Risk of Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change27
Impacts of Global Climate Warming on Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts and Their Propagations26
Future Population Exposure to Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves in South Asia26
Biases Beyond the Mean in CMIP6 Extreme Precipitation: A Global Investigation26
Quantifying Water Scarcity in Northern China Within the Context of Climatic and Societal Changes and South‐to‐North Water Diversion26
Projected Changes in Compound Flood Hazard From Riverine and Coastal Floods in Northwestern Europe26
Integrated Assessment of Urban Overheating Impacts on Human Life25
Identifying Key Drivers of Wildfires in the Contiguous US Using Machine Learning and Game Theory Interpretation25
The Magnitude of Regional‐Scale Tree Mortality Caused by the Invasive Pathogen Phytophthora ramorum25
Comparison of Changing Population Exposure to Droughts in River Basins of the Tarim and the Indus25
Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections25
Spatially Explicit Inventory of Sources of Nitrogen Inputs to the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea for the Period 1970–201025
Defining Robustness, Vulnerabilities, and Consequential Scenarios for Diverse Stakeholder Interests in Institutionally Complex River Basins25
Dams and Climate Interact to Alter River Flow Regimes Across the United States25
The Digital Forest: Mapping a Decade of Knowledge on Technological Applications for Forest Ecosystems25
Sea Level Rise Driving Increasingly Predictable Coastal Inundation in Sydney, Australia25
Changes in West African Summer Monsoon Precipitation Under Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering25
Increasing Heat‐Stress Inequality in a Warming Climate24
Larger Drought and Flood Hazards and Adverse Impacts on Population and Economic Productivity Under 2.0 than 1.5°C Warming24
Integrate Risk From Climate Change in China Under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C.24
Amplified Drought and Flood Risk Under Future Socioeconomic and Climatic Change24
Uncertainty and Bias in Global to Regional Scale Assessments of Current and Future Coastal Flood Risk24
Increased Global Vegetation Productivity Despite Rising Atmospheric Dryness Over the Last Two Decades24
Intensifying Australian Heatwave Trends and Their Sensitivity to Observational Data24
Future Global Convective Environments in CMIP6 Models23
Global Spatio‐Temporal Assessment of Changes in Multiple Ecosystem Services Under Four IPCC SRES Land‐use Scenarios23
In Water‐Limited Landscapes, an Anthropocene Exchange: Trading Lakes for Irrigated Agriculture23
Projected Changes in Reference Evapotranspiration in California and Nevada: Implications for Drought and Wildland Fire Danger23
Uncertainties, Limits, and Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation for Soil Moisture Drought in Southwestern North America23
Urbanization Contributes Little to Global Warming but Substantially Intensifies Local and Regional Land Surface Warming23
Significant Increase of the Global Population Exposure to Increased Precipitation Extremes in the Future23
Comparisons Between CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models: Simulations of Climate Indices Influencing Food Security, Infrastructure Resilience, and Human Health in Canada22
Attributing and Projecting Heatwaves Is Hard: We Can Do Better22
Anthropocene Geomorphic Change. Climate or Human Activities?22
Sensitivity of Global Pasturelands to Climate Variation22
Social‐Environmental Extremes: Rethinking Extraordinary Events as Outcomes of Interacting Biophysical and Social Systems22
Advancing the Understanding of Adaptive Capacity of Social‐Ecological Systems to Absorb Climate Extremes21
Evaluation of Extreme Temperatures Over Australia in the Historical Simulations of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models20
Urbanization Impacts on Evapotranspiration Across Various Spatio‐Temporal Scales20
Trends, Breaks, and Biases in the Frequency of Reported Glacier Lake Outburst Floods20
Localized Scenarios and Latitudinal Patterns of Vertical and Lateral Resilience of Tidal Marshes to Sea‐Level Rise in the Contiguous United States20
Selecting CMIP6 GCMs for CORDEX Dynamical Downscaling: Model Performance, Independence, and Climate Change Signals20
Changes in Global and Regional Characteristics of Heat Stress Waves in the 21st Century20
The Pakistan Flood of August 2022: Causes and Implications20
Increase in Population Exposure Due to Dry and Wet Extremes in India Under a Warming Climate20
Greenland Ice Sheet Response to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Geoengineering19
How International Economic Sanctions Harm the Environment19
Phosphorus Supply Increases Nitrogen Transformation Rates and Retention in Soil: A Global Meta‐Analysis19
From Pleistocene to Pyrocene: Fire Replaces Ice19
A Flood Damage Allowance Framework for Coastal Protection With Deep Uncertainty in Sea Level Rise18
Patterns and Distributions of Urban Expansion in Global Watersheds18
Quantifying On‐Farm Nitrous Oxide Emission Reductions in Food Supply Chains18
The Asynergies of Structural Disaster Risk Reduction Measures: Comparing Floods and Earthquakes18
Earth System Models Are Not Capturing Present‐Day Tropical Forest Carbon Dynamics17
China's Trade‐Off Between Economic Benefits and Sulfur Dioxide Emissions in Changing Global Trade17
Linking Total Precipitable Water to Precipitation Extremes Globally17
Impact of Rocket Launch and Space Debris Air Pollutant Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate17
Evaluating Participatory Modeling Methods for Co‐creating Pathways to Sustainability17
Introducing NARCliM1.5: Evaluating the Performance of Regional Climate Projections for Southeast Australia for 1950–210017
Impact‐Based Forecasting for Pluvial Floods17
From Flood to Drip Irrigation Under Climate Change: Impacts on Evapotranspiration and Groundwater Recharge in the Mediterranean Region of Valencia (Spain)17
The Consumption‐Based Carbon Emissions in the Jing‐Jin‐Ji Urban Agglomeration Over China's Economic Transition17
A Simulation‐Based Framework for Earthquake Risk‐Informed and People‐Centered Decision Making on Future Urban Planning17
Global Wetting by Seasonal Surface Water Over the Last Decades17
Significant Land Contributions to Interannual Predictability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall16
Decadal Variability of Winter Warm Arctic‐Cold Eurasia Dipole Patterns Modulated by Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation16
Effects of Vegetation Changes and Multiple Environmental Factors on Evapotranspiration Across China Over the Past 34 Years16
Projected Increases in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Productivity Loss Caused by Drought Under Climate Change16
Global Cooling Hiatus Driven by an AMOC Overshoot in a Carbon Dioxide Removal Scenario16
Evolving Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the North Atlantic in a Warming Climate16
A Participatory Science Approach to Expanding Instream Infrastructure Inventories16
Anthropogenic Warming and Population Growth May Double US Heat Stress by the Late 21st Century16
The Arctic Ocean in CMIP6 Models: Biases and Projected Changes in Temperature and Salinity16
Does Transfer Payments Promote Low‐Carbon Development of Resource‐Exhausted Cities in China?16
Solar or Diesel: A Comparison of Costs for Groundwater‐Fed Irrigation in Sub‐Saharan Africa Under Two Energy Solutions16
Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau Permafrost at Risk in the Late 21st Century16
The Carbon Sink Potential of Southern China After Two Decades of Afforestation16
Hydrological Intensification Will Increase the Complexity of Water Resource Management16
From Anthropocene to Noosphere: The Great Acceleration15
Modulation of Land Photosynthesis by the Indian Ocean Dipole: Satellite‐Based Observations and CMIP6 Future Projections15
Urban Systems: Mapping Interdependencies and Outcomes to Support Systems Thinking15
Climate Controls on River Chemistry15
High Sensitivity of Compound Drought and Heatwave Events to Global Warming in the Future15
Bridging the Gap Between Biofuels and Biodiversity Through Monetizing Environmental Services of Miscanthus Cultivation15
Projections of Mountain Snowpack Loss for Wolverine Denning Elevations in the Rocky Mountains15
Implications of Increasing Household Air Conditioning Use Across the United States Under a Warming Climate15
A Warming Climate Adds Complexity to Post‐Fire Hydrologic Hazard Planning15
Mapping the Vulnerability of Arctic Wetlands to Global Warming15
Spatial Simulation of Codesigned Land Cover Change Scenarios in New England: Alternative Futures and Their Consequences for Conservation Priorities15
Anthropogenic Effects on the Contemporary Sediment Budget of the Lower Rhine‐Meuse Delta Channel Network15
SSP‐Based Land‐Use Change Scenarios: A Critical Uncertainty in Future Regional Climate Change Projections15
Stable ≠ Sustainable: Delta Dynamics Versus the Human Need for Stability14
Impacts of Potential China's Environmental Protection Tax Reforms on Provincial Air Pollution Emissions and Economy14
Explicit Calculations of Wet‐Bulb Globe Temperature Compared With Approximations and Why It Matters for Labor Productivity14
Reservoir Governance in World's Water Towers Needs to Anticipate Multi‐purpose Use14
Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming14
Dynamic Driving Forces of India's Emissions From Production and Consumption Perspectives14
How Much Food Can We Grow in Urban Areas? Food Production and Crop Yields of Urban Agriculture: A Meta‐Analysis14
Climatic Drivers of Extreme Sea Level Events Along the Coastline of Western Australia14
Carbon Cycle Response to Temperature Overshoot Beyond 2°C: An Analysis of CMIP6 Models13
New Drought Projections Over East Asia Using Evapotranspiration Deficits From the CMIP6 Warming Scenarios13
Heterogeneous Spatial Effects of FDI on CO2 Emissions in China13
Representing Socio‐Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models13
Response of Extreme Rainfall for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Undergoing Extratropical Transition to Projected Climate Change: Hurricane Irene (2011)13
Australian Coastal Flooding Trends and Forcing Factors13
CMIP5 Intermodel Relationships in the Baseline Southern Ocean Climate System and With Future Projections13
Enlarging Regional Disparities in Energy Intensity within China13
Multi‐Region Multi‐Sector Contributions to Drivers of Air Pollution in China12
The Environmental Footprint of Transport by Car Using Renewable Energy12
Advancing the Evidence Base of Future Warming Impacts on Human Mobility in African Drylands12
Knowledge Priorities on Climate Change and Water in the Upper Indus Basin: A Horizon Scanning Exercise to Identify the Top 100 Research Questions in Social and Natural Sciences12
How Daily Temperature and Precipitation Distributions Evolve With Global Surface Temperature.12
The Implications of Global Change for the Co‐Evolution of Argentina's Integrated Energy‐Water‐Land Systems12
Non‐Stationary Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments Incorporating Climate‐Change‐Driven Sea Level Rise12
Detectable Human Influence on Changes in Precipitation Extremes Across China12
The Upper Tail of Precipitation in Convection‐Permitting Regional Climate Models and Their Utility in Nonstationary Rainfall and Flood Frequency Analysis12
Potential for Electric Vehicle Adoption to Mitigate Extreme Air Quality Events in China12
Vulnerability to Water Shortage Under Current and Future Water Supply‐Demand Conditions Across U.S. River Basins12
Do Longer Dry Spells Associated With Warmer Years Compound the Stress on Global Water Resources?12
Projected Changes to Hydroclimate Seasonality in the Continental United States12
Sea Ice Targeted Geoengineering Can Delay Arctic Sea Ice Decline but not Global Warming12
Significant Reductions in Crop Yields From Air Pollution and Heat Stress in the United States11
Uncertainty Analysis in Multi‐Sector Systems: Considerations for Risk Analysis, Projection, and Planning for Complex Systems11
How May the Choice of Downscaling Techniques and Meteorological Reference Observations Affect Future Hydroclimate Projections?11
Hydrology as a Driver of Floating River Plastic Transport11
Projected Changes in Increased Drought Risks Over South Asia Under a Warmer Climate11
How to Balance Green and Grain in Marginal Mountainous Areas?11
Uncovering the Past and Future Climate Drivers of Wheat Yield Shocks in Europe With Machine Learning11
Using a New Top‐Down Constrained Emissions Inventory to Attribute the Previously Unknown Source of Extreme Aerosol Loadings Observed Annually in the Monsoon Asia Free Troposphere11
The Political Complexity of Coastal Flood Risk Reduction: Lessons for Climate Adaptation Public Works in the U.S.11
Net‐Zero CO2 Germany—A Retrospect From the Year 205011
China's Food Supply Sources Under Trade Conflict With the United States and Limited Domestic Land and Water Resources10
A Multivariate Scaling System Is Essential to Characterize the Tropical Cyclones' Risk10
Atmospheric River Precipitation Enhanced by Climate Change: A Case Study of the Storm That Contributed to California's Oroville Dam Crisis10
Linear and Nonlinear Trend Analyzes in Global Satellite‐Based Precipitation, 1998–201710
Delimiting China's Urban Growth Boundaries Under Localized Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Various Urban Expansion Modes10
Scaling Deep Decarbonization Technologies10
Participatory Modeling Updates Expectations forIndividuals and Groups, Catalyzing BehaviorChange and Collective Action inWater‐Energy‐Food NexusGovernance10
Predominant Type of Dust Storms That Influences Air Quality Over Northern China and Future Projections10
Urbanization Amplified Asymmetrical Changes of Rainfall and Exacerbated Drought: Analysis Over Five Urban Agglomerations in the Yangtze River Basin, China10
Riverine Flooding and Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Over China10
Groundwater Rise and Associated Flooding in Coastal Settlements Due To Sea‐Level Rise: A Review of Processes and Methods10
Comparing Patterns of Hurricane Washover into Built and Unbuilt Environments10
Scenarios of Human Responses to Unprecedented Social‐Environmental Extreme Events10
Resilience to Large, “Catastrophic” Wildfires in North America's Grassland Biome10
Applying Tipping Point Theory to Remote Sensing Science to Improve Early Warning Drought Signals for Food Security10
Projected Changes in the Annual Range of Precipitation Under Stabilized 1.5°C and 2.0°C Warming Futures10
Projecting Climate Dependent Coastal Flood Risk With a Hybrid Statistical Dynamical Model10