Earths Future

Article	Citations
Twenty‐First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios	438
Assessment to China's Recent Emission Pattern Shifts	266
Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa	165
Insights From CMIP6 for Australia's Future Climate	164
Partitioning the Uncertainty of Ensemble Projections of Global Glacier Mass Change	107
Increased Flood Exposure Due to Climate Change and Population Growth in the United States	105
Regional Climate Sensitivity of Climate Extremes in CMIP6 Versus CMIP5 Multimodel Ensembles	97
Global CO2 Consumption by Silicate Rock Chemical Weathering: Its Past and Future	95
Identifying a Safe and Just Corridor for People and the Planet	86
Iran's Agriculture in the Anthropocene	80
Similarities and Differences in the Mechanisms Causing the European Summer Heatwaves in 2003, 2010, and 2018	76
Event‐Based Storylines to Address Climate Risk	75
Causes of the Widespread 2019–2020 Australian Bushfire Season	74
Seasonality, Intensity, and Duration of Rainfall Extremes Change in a Warmer Climate	74
The 2018–2020 Multi‐Year Drought Sets a New Benchmark in Europe	74
Heat Stress Indicators in CMIP6: Estimating Future Trends and Exceedances of Impact‐Relevant Thresholds	70
Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales	69
Climate Change and Changes in Compound Coastal‐Riverine Flooding Hazard Along the U.S. Coasts	67
Analysis of Compound Climate Extremes and Exposed Population in Africa Under Two Different Emission Scenarios	67
Projected Changes in Socioeconomic Exposure to Heatwaves in South Asia Under Changing Climate	67
Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events	67
Increasing Human‐Perceived Heat Stress Risks Exacerbated by Urbanization in China: A Comparative Study Based on Multiple Metrics	64
TROPOMI NO2 in the United States: A Detailed Look at the Annual Averages, Weekly Cycles, Effects of Temperature, and Correlation With Surface NO2 Concentrations	62
Future Drought in the Dry Lands of Asia Under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C Warming Scenarios	59
The Anthropocene: Comparing Its Meaning in Geology (Chronostratigraphy) with Conceptual Approaches Arising in Other Disciplines	58

Nearly Half of Global Vegetated Area Experienced Inconsistent Vegetation Growth in Terms of Greenness, Cover, and Productivity	58
High‐Resolution Data Sets for Global Carbonate and Silicate Rock Weathering Carbon Sinks and Their Change Trends	57
Global Agricultural Water Scarcity Assessment Incorporating Blue and Green Water Availability Under Future Climate Change	56
A Framework to Quantify the Uncertainty Contribution of GCMs Over Multiple Sources in Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change	56
Tropical Cyclone Compound Flood Hazard Assessment: From Investigating Drivers to Quantifying Extreme Water Levels	56
Intercomparison of Magnitudes and Trends in Anthropogenic Surface Emissions From Bottom‐Up Inventories, Top‐Down Estimates, and Emission Scenarios	55
Future Transboundary Water Stress and Its Drivers Under Climate Change: A Global Study	50
Robustness of CMIP6 Historical Global Mean Temperature Simulations: Trends, Long‐Term Persistence, Autocorrelation, and Distributional Shape	50
The State of the Art in Modeling Waterlogging Impacts on Plants: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know	50
“Certain Uncertainty: The Role of Internal Climate Variability in Projections of Regional Climate Change and Risk Management”	50
Multisector Dynamics: Advancing the Science of Complex Adaptive Human‐Earth Systems	47
Remote Sensing Big Data for Water Environment Monitoring: Current Status, Challenges, and Future Prospects	47
Heatwaves in Southeast Asia and Their Changes in a Warmer World	47
Doubling of U.S. Population Exposure to Climate Extremes by 2050	46
Responses of Precipitation and Runoff to Climate Warming and Implications for Future Drought Changes in China	45
Time Evolution of the Surface Urban Heat Island	45
Integrated Assessment of Urban Overheating Impacts on Human Life	45
Tropical Cyclone Frequency	44
The Value of Initial Condition Large Ensembles to Robust Adaptation Decision‐Making	44
Implications of CMIP6 Projected Drying Trends for 21st Century Amazonian Drought Risk	44
The COVID‐19 Pandemic Not Only Poses Challenges, but Also Opens Opportunities for Sustainable Transformation	42
Dual Influence of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on the Spatiotemporal Vegetation Dynamics Over the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau From 1981 to 2015	42
High‐Resolution Gridded Population Projections for China Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways	42
Exploring the Drivers of Global and Local Sea‐Level Change Over the 21st Century and Beyond	42
Impacts of Global Climate Warming on Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts and Their Propagations	41
Climate Warming Consistently Reduces Grassland Ecosystem Productivity	41
Risky Development: Increasing Exposure to Natural Hazards in the United States	41
Future Population Exposure to Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves in South Asia	41
The Pakistan Flood of August 2022: Causes and Implications	40
Widespread Race and Class Disparities in Surface Urban Heat Extremes Across the United States	39
California's Central Valley Groundwater Wells Run Dry During Recent Drought	39
Amplified Drought and Flood Risk Under Future Socioeconomic and Climatic Change	38
Unprecedented Drought Challenges for Texas Water Resources in a Changing Climate: What Do Researchers and Stakeholders Need to Know?	38
Rising Trends in Heatwave Metrics Across Southern California	38
Attributing and Projecting Heatwaves Is Hard: We Can Do Better	37
Forecasting the Frequency and Magnitude of Postfire Debris Flows Across Southern California	37
The Greater Mekong's Climate‐Water‐Energy Nexus: How ENSO‐Triggered Regional Droughts Affect Power Supply and CO2 Emissions	37
Future Risks of Unprecedented Compound Heat Waves Over Three Vast Urban Agglomerations in China	37
Biases Beyond the Mean in CMIP6 Extreme Precipitation: A Global Investigation	37
Directions for Research on Climate and Conflict	37
Flood Risks in Sinking Delta Cities: Time for a Reevaluation?	36
Increased Global Vegetation Productivity Despite Rising Atmospheric Dryness Over the Last Two Decades	36
The Value of Urban Flood Modeling	36
Coastal Migration due to 21st Century Sea‐Level Rise	35
Global Socioeconomic Risk of Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change	34
Cascading Hazards in the Aftermath of Australia's 2019/2020 Black Summer Wildfires	34
Can Reservoir Regulation Along the Yellow River Be a Sustainable Way to Save a Sinking Delta?	34
Future Climate Change Hotspots Under Different 21st Century Warming Scenarios	34
Fates and Use Efficiency of Nitrogen Fertilizer in Maize Cropping Systems and Their Responses to Technologies and Management Practices: A Global Analysis on Field 15N Tracer Studies	34
Uncertainty and Bias in Global to Regional Scale Assessments of Current and Future Coastal Flood Risk	33

Demand for Ports to 2050: Climate Policy, Growing Trade and the Impacts of Sea‐Level Rise	33
Quantifying Water Scarcity in Northern China Within the Context of Climatic and Societal Changes and South‐to‐North Water Diversion	32
Urbanization Contributes Little to Global Warming but Substantially Intensifies Local and Regional Land Surface Warming	32
Dams and Climate Interact to Alter River Flow Regimes Across the United States	32
Intensifying Australian Heatwave Trends and Their Sensitivity to Observational Data	32
Cloud‐Nucleating Particles Over the Southern Ocean in a Changing Climate	32
Increasing Heat‐Stress Inequality in a Warming Climate	32
Future Global Convective Environments in CMIP6 Models	32
Spatially Explicit Inventory of Sources of Nitrogen Inputs to the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea for the Period 1970–2010	32
Selecting CMIP6 GCMs for CORDEX Dynamical Downscaling: Model Performance, Independence, and Climate Change Signals	32
Significant Increase of the Global Population Exposure to Increased Precipitation Extremes in the Future	32
Cold‐Season Arctic Amplification Driven by Arctic Ocean‐Mediated Seasonal Energy Transfer	31
The Digital Forest: Mapping a Decade of Knowledge on Technological Applications for Forest Ecosystems	31
Uncertainties, Limits, and Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation for Soil Moisture Drought in Southwestern North America	31
Assessing Shifts in Regional Hydroclimatic Conditions of U.S. River Basins in Response to Climate Change over the 21st Century	31
Can Exploratory Modeling of Water Scarcity Vulnerabilities and Robustness Be Scenario Neutral?	30
The Magnitude of Regional‐Scale Tree Mortality Caused by the Invasive Pathogen Phytophthora ramorum	30
Changes in West African Summer Monsoon Precipitation Under Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering	30
Identifying Key Drivers of Wildfires in the Contiguous US Using Machine Learning and Game Theory Interpretation	30
Past Variance and Future Projections of the Environmental Conditions Driving Western U.S. Summertime Wildfire Burn Area	30
Localized Scenarios and Latitudinal Patterns of Vertical and Lateral Resilience of Tidal Marshes to Sea‐Level Rise in the Contiguous United States	30
Projected Changes in Compound Flood Hazard From Riverine and Coastal Floods in Northwestern Europe	30
Defining Robustness, Vulnerabilities, and Consequential Scenarios for Diverse Stakeholder Interests in Institutionally Complex River Basins	30
Assessing River Basin Development Given Water‐Energy‐Food‐Environment Interdependencies	30
Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau Permafrost at Risk in the Late 21st Century	29
Phosphorus Supply Increases Nitrogen Transformation Rates and Retention in Soil: A Global Meta‐Analysis	29
In Water‐Limited Landscapes, an Anthropocene Exchange: Trading Lakes for Irrigated Agriculture	29
Climate Controls on River Chemistry	28
High Sensitivity of Compound Drought and Heatwave Events to Global Warming in the Future	28
Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections	28
Hydrological Intensification Will Increase the Complexity of Water Resource Management	28
Projected Changes in Reference Evapotranspiration in California and Nevada: Implications for Drought and Wildland Fire Danger	27
The Arctic Ocean in CMIP6 Models: Biases and Projected Changes in Temperature and Salinity	27
Global Spatio‐Temporal Assessment of Changes in Multiple Ecosystem Services Under Four IPCC SRES Land‐use Scenarios	27
Social‐Environmental Extremes: Rethinking Extraordinary Events as Outcomes of Interacting Biophysical and Social Systems	27
Sea Level Rise Driving Increasingly Predictable Coastal Inundation in Sydney, Australia	27
Explicit Calculations of Wet‐Bulb Globe Temperature Compared With Approximations and Why It Matters for Labor Productivity	26
Patterns and Distributions of Urban Expansion in Global Watersheds	26
Larger Drought and Flood Hazards and Adverse Impacts on Population and Economic Productivity Under 2.0 than 1.5°C Warming	26
Comparison of Changing Population Exposure to Droughts in River Basins of the Tarim and the Indus	26
The Carbon Sink Potential of Southern China After Two Decades of Afforestation	26
Urbanization Impacts on Evapotranspiration Across Various Spatio‐Temporal Scales	25
Trends, Breaks, and Biases in the Frequency of Reported Glacier Lake Outburst Floods	25
Anthropocene Geomorphic Change. Climate or Human Activities?	25
Comparisons Between CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models: Simulations of Climate Indices Influencing Food Security, Infrastructure Resilience, and Human Health in Canada	25
Increase in Population Exposure Due to Dry and Wet Extremes in India Under a Warming Climate	25
Evaluation of Extreme Temperatures Over Australia in the Historical Simulations of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models	24
Evaluating Participatory Modeling Methods for Co‐creating Pathways to Sustainability	24
Projected Changes in Increased Drought Risks Over South Asia Under a Warmer Climate	23
How International Economic Sanctions Harm the Environment	23
Linking Total Precipitable Water to Precipitation Extremes Globally	23
Impact of Rocket Launch and Space Debris Air Pollutant Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate	23
Implications of Increasing Household Air Conditioning Use Across the United States Under a Warming Climate	23
Global Cooling Hiatus Driven by an AMOC Overshoot in a Carbon Dioxide Removal Scenario	23
Hydrology as a Driver of Floating River Plastic Transport	22
Effects of Vegetation Changes and Multiple Environmental Factors on Evapotranspiration Across China Over the Past 34 Years	22
Changes in Global and Regional Characteristics of Heat Stress Waves in the 21st Century	22
The Asynergies of Structural Disaster Risk Reduction Measures: Comparing Floods and Earthquakes	22
Earth System Models Are Not Capturing Present‐Day Tropical Forest Carbon Dynamics	22
From Pleistocene to Pyrocene: Fire Replaces Ice	22
The Consumption‐Based Carbon Emissions in the Jing‐Jin‐Ji Urban Agglomeration Over China's Economic Transition	21
Climatic Drivers of Extreme Sea Level Events Along the Coastline of Western Australia	21
From Flood to Drip Irrigation Under Climate Change: Impacts on Evapotranspiration and Groundwater Recharge in the Mediterranean Region of Valencia (Spain)	21
From Anthropocene to Noosphere: The Great Acceleration	21
Anthropogenic Effects on the Contemporary Sediment Budget of the Lower Rhine‐Meuse Delta Channel Network	21
Solar or Diesel: A Comparison of Costs for Groundwater‐Fed Irrigation in Sub‐Saharan Africa Under Two Energy Solutions	21
Does Transfer Payments Promote Low‐Carbon Development of Resource‐Exhausted Cities in China?	21
Impact‐Based Forecasting for Pluvial Floods	20
Drivers and Mechanisms of the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave	20
Evaluation of the CMIP6 Precipitation Simulations Over Global Land	20
Introducing NARCliM1.5: Evaluating the Performance of Regional Climate Projections for Southeast Australia for 1950–2100	20
Mapping the Vulnerability of Arctic Wetlands to Global Warming	20
Australian Coastal Flooding Trends and Forcing Factors	19
Quantifying On‐Farm Nitrous Oxide Emission Reductions in Food Supply Chains	19
Representing Socio‐Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models	19
Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming	19
Evolving Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the North Atlantic in a Warming Climate	19
Advancing the Evidence Base of Future Warming Impacts on Human Mobility in African Drylands	19
Quantifying the Uncertainty Sources of Future Climate Projections and Narrowing Uncertainties With Bias Correction Techniques	19
Future Land Use/Land Cover Change Has Nontrivial and Potentially Dominant Impact on Global Gross Primary Productivity	19

SSP‐Based Land‐Use Change Scenarios: A Critical Uncertainty in Future Regional Climate Change Projections	19
Heterogeneous Spatial Effects of FDI on CO2 Emissions in China	19
A Warming Climate Adds Complexity to Post‐Fire Hydrologic Hazard Planning	18
Contrasting Fate of Western Third Pole's Water Resources Under 21st Century Climate Change	18
Atmospheric River Precipitation Enhanced by Climate Change: A Case Study of the Storm That Contributed to California's Oroville Dam Crisis	18
Groundwater Rise and Associated Flooding in Coastal Settlements Due To Sea‐Level Rise: A Review of Processes and Methods	18
A Simulation‐Based Framework for Earthquake Risk‐Informed and People‐Centered Decision Making on Future Urban Planning	18
Bridging the Gap Between Biofuels and Biodiversity Through Monetizing Environmental Services of Miscanthus Cultivation	18
Decadal Variability of Winter Warm Arctic‐Cold Eurasia Dipole Patterns Modulated by Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation	18
Significant Reductions in Crop Yields From Air Pollution and Heat Stress in the United States	18
How Much Food Can We Grow in Urban Areas? Food Production and Crop Yields of Urban Agriculture: A Meta‐Analysis	18
Modulation of Land Photosynthesis by the Indian Ocean Dipole: Satellite‐Based Observations and CMIP6 Future Projections	18
Significant Land Contributions to Interannual Predictability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall	17
CMIP5 Intermodel Relationships in the Baseline Southern Ocean Climate System and With Future Projections	17
Rates of Historical Anthropogenic Soil Erosion in the Midwestern United States	17
Carbon Cycle Response to Temperature Overshoot Beyond 2°C: An Analysis of CMIP6 Models	17
Uncertainty Analysis in Multi‐Sector Systems: Considerations for Risk Analysis, Projection, and Planning for Complex Systems	17
Spatial Simulation of Codesigned Land Cover Change Scenarios in New England: Alternative Futures and Their Consequences for Conservation Priorities	17
Anthropogenic Warming and Population Growth May Double US Heat Stress by the Late 21st Century	17
Projected Increases in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Productivity Loss Caused by Drought Under Climate Change	17
Dynamic Driving Forces of India's Emissions From Production and Consumption Perspectives	16
Global Marine Heatwaves and Cold‐Spells in Present Climate to Future Projections	16
Predominant Type of Dust Storms That Influences Air Quality Over Northern China and Future Projections	16
Fire and Ice: The Impact of Wildfire‐Affected Albedo and Irradiance on Glacier Melt	16
Non‐Stationary Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments Incorporating Climate‐Change‐Driven Sea Level Rise	16
A Participatory Science Approach to Expanding Instream Infrastructure Inventories	16
Detectable Human Influence on Changes in Precipitation Extremes Across China	16
How to Balance Green and Grain in Marginal Mountainous Areas?	16
High‐Latitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection to Preserve the Arctic	16
Projections of Mountain Snowpack Loss for Wolverine Denning Elevations in the Rocky Mountains	16
Caught Between Extremes: Understanding Human‐Water Interactions During Drought‐To‐Flood Events in the Horn of Africa	16
Future Changes in Climate and Hydroclimate Extremes in East Africa	16
A High‐End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners	16
Irreversible and Large‐Scale Heavy Metal Pollution Arising From Increased Damming and Untreated Water Reuse in the Nile Delta	16
Delimiting China's Urban Growth Boundaries Under Localized Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Various Urban Expansion Modes	16
Globally Increasing Atmospheric Aridity Over the 21st Century	15
How May the Choice of Downscaling Techniques and Meteorological Reference Observations Affect Future Hydroclimate Projections?	15
Simulated Impact of Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement on Atmospheric CO2 Removal in the Bering Sea	15
The Upper Tail of Precipitation in Convection‐Permitting Regional Climate Models and Their Utility in Nonstationary Rainfall and Flood Frequency Analysis	15
Inundation of Stormwater Infrastructure Is Common and Increases Risk of Flooding in Coastal Urban Areas Along the US Atlantic Coast	15
Potential for Electric Vehicle Adoption to Mitigate Extreme Air Quality Events in China	15
What Does Global Land Climate Look Like at 2°C Warming?	15
Uncovering the Past and Future Climate Drivers of Wheat Yield Shocks in Europe With Machine Learning	15
Quantitative Stress Test of Compound Coastal‐Fluvial Floods in China's Pearl River Delta	15
Climate Change Determines Future Population Exposure to Summertime Compound Dry and Hot Events	15
A Cross‐Cutting Approach for Relating Anthropocene, Environmental Injustice and Sacrifice Zones	15
Net‐Zero CO2 Germany—A Retrospect From the Year 2050	15
The Implications of Global Change for the Co‐Evolution of Argentina's Integrated Energy‐Water‐Land Systems	15
Multivariate Analysis of Compound Flood Hazard Across Canada's Atlantic, Pacific and Great Lakes Coastal Areas	15
Stable ≠ Sustainable: Delta Dynamics Versus the Human Need for Stability	15
Knowledge Priorities on Climate Change and Water in the Upper Indus Basin: A Horizon Scanning Exercise to Identify the Top 100 Research Questions in Social and Natural Sciences	15
Scenarios of Human Responses to Unprecedented Social‐Environmental Extreme Events	15
Vulnerability to Water Shortage Under Current and Future Water Supply‐Demand Conditions Across U.S. River Basins	15
Mapping 21st Century Global Coastal Land Reclamation	14
A Holistic Assessment of 1979–2016 Global Cryospheric Extent	14
Multi‐Region Multi‐Sector Contributions to Drivers of Air Pollution in China	14
Urbanization Amplified Asymmetrical Changes of Rainfall and Exacerbated Drought: Analysis Over Five Urban Agglomerations in the Yangtze River Basin, China	14
Reservoir Governance in World's Water Towers Needs to Anticipate Multi‐purpose Use	14
Resilience to Large, “Catastrophic” Wildfires in North America's Grassland Biome	14
Critical Role of Irrigation Efficiency for Cropland Expansion in Western China Arid Agroecosystems	14
Projected Changes to Hydroclimate Seasonality in the Continental United States	14
Drivers of Recent North Pacific Decadal Variability: The Role of Aerosol Forcing	14
Enlarging Regional Disparities in Energy Intensity within China	14
Projections of Freshwater Use in the United States Under Climate Change	13
Living With Fire and the Need for Diversity	13
Atmospheric Contributions to the Reversal of Surface Temperature Anomalies Between Early and Late Winter Over Eurasia	13
Global Modeling of Seasonal Mortality Rates From River Floods	13
Marked Impacts of Pollution Mitigation on Crop Yields in China	13
Scaling Deep Decarbonization Technologies	13
Different Spatiotemporal Patterns in Global Human Population and Built‐Up Land	13
A Multivariate Scaling System Is Essential to Characterize the Tropical Cyclones' Risk	13
Do Longer Dry Spells Associated With Warmer Years Compound the Stress on Global Water Resources?	13
Linking Critical Zone With Watershed Science: The Example of the Heihe River Basin	13
Projecting Climate Dependent Coastal Flood Risk With a Hybrid Statistical Dynamical Model	13
New Drought Projections Over East Asia Using Evapotranspiration Deficits From the CMIP6 Warming Scenarios	13
Distinguishing Direct Human‐Driven Effects on the Global Terrestrial Water Cycle	13
Projected Impact of Increased Global Warming on Heat Stress and Exposed Population Over Africa	13
Using a New Top‐Down Constrained Emissions Inventory to Attribute the Previously Unknown Source of Extreme Aerosol Loadings Observed Annually in the Monsoon Asia Free Troposphere	13
Process‐Based Flood Risk Assessment for Germany	12
Heatwaves Similar to the Unprecedented One in Summer 2021 Over Western North America Are Projected to Become More Frequent in a Warmer World	12
Flash Drought: Review of Concept, Prediction and the Potential for Machine Learning, Deep Learning Methods	12
The Climatic Impact‐Driver Framework for Assessment of Risk‐Relevant Climate Information	12
Linear and Nonlinear Trend Analyzes in Global Satellite‐Based Precipitation, 1998–2017	12
Wetter California Projected by CMIP6 Models With Observational Constraints Under a High GHG Emission Scenario	12
Amplification Effect of Urbanization on Atmospheric Aridity Over China Under Past Global Warming	12
Causal Impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Global Soil Moisture Over the Period 2015–2100	12
Defining the “Ice Shed” of the Arctic Ocean's Last Ice Area and Its Future Evolution	12
Impact of Quasi‐Idealized Future Land Cover Scenarios at High Latitudes in Complex Terrain	12
Resilience of School Systems Following Severe Earthquakes	12
Water Smart Cities Increase Irrigation to Provide Cool Refuge in a Climate Crisis	12
New LiDAR‐Based Elevation Model Shows Greatest Increase in Global Coastal Exposure to Flooding to Be Caused by Early‐Stage Sea‐Level Rise	12
Landslide Hazard and Exposure Modelling in Data‐Poor Regions: The Example of the Rohingya Refugee Camps in Bangladesh	12