OOIR: Observatory of International Research

Papers

(The median citation count of Earth System Dynamics is 5. The table below lists those papers that are above that threshold based on CrossRef citation counts [max. 250 papers]. The publications cover those that have been published in the past four years, i.e., from 2020-04-01 to 2024-04-01.)

Article	Citations
Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6	238
Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6	233
Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming	209
Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence	134
Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability	129
Emergent constraints on transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models	98
Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP6 models	89
The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections	88
Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary	75
Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021	73
How large does a large ensemble need to be?	71
Multivariate bias corrections of climate simulations: which benefits for which losses?	68
Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?	60
Large ensemble climate model simulations: introduction, overview, and future prospects for utilising multiple types of large ensemble	53
Compound warm–dry and cold–wet events over the Mediterranean	51
Vulnerability of European ecosystems to two compound dry and hot summers in 2018 and 2019	50
Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering	49
Coupling human and natural systems for sustainability: experience from China's Loess Plateau	48
Evaluating the dependence structure of compound precipitation and wind speed extremes	45
Sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea region	43
Climate change in the High Mountain Asia in CMIP6	40
An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles	37
Salinity dynamics of the Baltic Sea	35
Natural hazards and extreme events in the Baltic Sea region	35
Oceanographic regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea until 2100	34

Groundwater storage dynamics in the world's large aquifer systems from GRACE: uncertainty and role of extreme precipitation	34
Extreme weather and societal impacts in the eastern Mediterranean	33
Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought trends in eastern Africa	32
Earth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World–Earth modeling framework	31
Storylines of the 2018 Northern Hemisphere heatwave at pre-industrial and higher global warming levels	31
Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals	29
Global climate change and the Baltic Sea ecosystem: direct and indirect effects on species, communities and ecosystem functioning	29
Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches	29
Identifying meteorological drivers of extreme impacts: an application to simulated crop yields	28
Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth	27
Storylines of weather-induced crop failure events under climate change	27
Human impacts and their interactions in the Baltic Sea region	25
The extremely warm summer of 2018 in Sweden – set in a historical context	24
Climate change impacts on solar power generation and its spatial variability in Europe based on CMIP6	23
A continued role of short-lived climate forcers under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways	23
Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100	22
Expanding the design space of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering to include precipitation-based objectives and explore trade-offs	22
Comparing interannual variability in three regional single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) over Europe	22
Climate–groundwater dynamics inferred from GRACE and the role of hydraulic memory	22
Comparison of uncertainties in land-use change fluxes from bookkeeping model parameterisation	22
Biogeochemical functioning of the Baltic Sea	22
Variability of surface climate in simulations of past and future	20
Long-term variance of heavy precipitation across central Europe using a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations	19
Exploring how groundwater buffers the influence of heatwaves on vegetation function during multi-year droughts	19
Intensification of the hydrological cycle expected in West Africa over the 21st century	19
The impact of regional climate model formulation and resolution on simulated precipitation in Africa	19
Balanced estimate and uncertainty assessment of European climate change using the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble	18
Impacts of compound hot–dry extremes on US soybean yields	18
The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints	18
A dynamical systems characterization of atmospheric jet regimes	17
Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios	17
A new view of heat wave dynamics and predictability over the eastern Mediterranean	16
Eurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periods	16
Taxonomies for structuring models for World–Earth systems analysis of the Anthropocene: subsystems, their interactions and social–ecological feedback loops	16
Synchronized spatial shifts of Hadley and Walker circulations	15
Semi-equilibrated global sea-level change projections for the next 10 000 years	15
An updated assessment of past and future warming over France based on a regional observational constraint	15
Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO<sub>2</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> in equatorial A	14
How modelling paradigms affect simulated future land use change	14
Labrador Sea subsurface density as a precursor of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: a multi-model study	14
Coupled regional Earth system modeling in the Baltic Sea region	14
Contrasting projections of the ENSO-driven CO₂flux variability in the equatorial Pacific under high-warming scenario	14
Soil organic carbon dynamics from agricultural management practices under climate change	13
Spatiotemporal patterns of synchronous heavy rainfall events in East Asia during the Baiu season	13
Comparison of CMIP6 historical climate simulations and future projected warming to an empirical model of global climate	13
Historical and future contributions of inland waters to the Congo Basin carbon balance	13
Space–time dependence of compound hot–dry events in the United States: assessment using a multi-site multi-variable weather generator	13
Reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions on future glacial cycles	12
Evaluation of convection-permitting extreme precipitation simulations for the south of France	12
Impacts of future agricultural change on ecosystem service indicators	12

Exploring the coupled ocean and atmosphere system with a data science approach applied to observations from the Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition	12
Temperatures from energy balance models: the effective heat capacity matters	12
Carbon dioxide removal via macroalgae open-ocean mariculture and sinking: an Earth system modeling study	12
Divergent historical GPP trends among state-of-the-art multi-model simulations and satellite-based products	11
Reconstructing coupled time series in climate systems using three kinds of machine-learning methods	11
Diverging land-use projections cause large variability in their impacts on ecosystems and related indicators for ecosystem services	11
Spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) leaching into the European river network	11
Evidence of localised Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models	11
Sensitivity of land–atmosphere coupling strength to changing atmospheric temperature and moisture over Europe	11
The thermal response of small and shallow lakes to climate change: new insights from 3D hindcast modelling	10
Mesoscale atmospheric circulation controls of local meteorological elevation gradients on Kersten Glacier near Kilimanjaro summit	10
Stratospheric ozone and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) interaction with the tropical troposphere on intraseasonal and interannual timescales: a normal-mode perspective	10
How large is the design space for stratospheric aerosol geoengineering?	10
Indices of extremes: geographic patterns of change in extremes and associated vegetation impacts under climate intervention	10
Relating climate sensitivity indices to projection uncertainty	9
Bookkeeping estimates of the net land-use change flux – a sensitivity study with the CMIP6 land-use dataset	9
Wind speed stilling and its recovery due to internal climate variability	9
The future of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation: using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences	9
The half-order energy balance equation – Part 1: The homogeneous HEBE and long memories	9
Impact of environmental changes and land management practices on wheat production in India	9
Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point	9
Climate change as an incentive for future human migration	9
Impact of urbanization on the thermal environment of the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration under complex terrain	8
The synergistic impact of ENSO and IOD on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in observations and climate simulations – an information theory perspective	8
Downscaling of climate change scenarios for a high-resolution, site-specific assessment of drought stress risk for two viticultural regions with heterogeneous landscapes	8
Impact of bioenergy crop expansion on climate–carbon cycle feedbacks in overshoot scenarios	8
Climate engineering to mitigate the projected 21st-century terrestrial drying of the Americas: a direct comparison of carbon capture and sulfur injection	8
Resolving ecological feedbacks on the ocean carbon sink in Earth system models	8
Rankings of extreme and widespread dry and wet events in the Iberian Peninsula between 1901 and 2016	8
Parameter uncertainty dominates C-cycle forecast errors over most of Brazil for the 21st century	8
Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates	8
Multiscale fractal dimension analysis of a reduced order model of coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics	8
Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations	8
Using a nested single-model large ensemble to assess the internal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its climatic implications for central Europe	8
Rate-induced tipping in natural and human systems	8
A methodology for the spatiotemporal identification of compound hazards: wind and precipitation extremes in Great Britain (1979–2019)	8
Indian Ocean marine biogeochemical variability and its feedback on simulated South Asia climate	7
Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe	7
The fractional energy balance equation for climate projections through 2100	7
Dating hiatuses: a statistical model of the recent slowdown in global warming and the next one	7
First assessment of the earth heat inventory within CMIP5 historical simulations	7
Complex network analysis of fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>): transport and clustering	7
Weakened impact of the Atlantic Niño on the future equatorial Atlantic and Guinea Coast rainfall	7
Weather extremes over Europe under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming from HAPPI regional climate ensemble simulations	7
MESMER-M: an Earth system model emulator for spatially resolved monthly temperature	7
The sensitivity of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to volcanic aerosol spatial distribution in the MPI Grand Ensemble	7
The biogeophysical effects of idealized land cover and land management changes in Earth system models	7
The half-order energy balance equation – Part 2: The inhomogeneous HEBE and 2D energy balance models	6
Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling	6
ESD Ideas: Global climate response scenarios for IPCC assessments	6
Agricultural management effects on mean and extreme temperature trends	6
Trends and uncertainties of mass-driven sea-level change in the satellite altimetry era	6
Present and future European heat wave magnitudes: climatologies, trends, and their associated uncertainties in GCM-RCM model chains	6
Evaluating nitrogen cycling in terrestrial biosphere models: a disconnect between the carbon and nitrogen cycles	6
Constraining low-frequency variability in climate projections to predict climate on decadal to multi-decadal timescales – a poor man's initialized prediction system	6
Regional variation in the effectiveness of methane-based and land-based climate mitigation options	6
Climate-controlled root zone parameters show potential to improve water flux simulations by land surface models	6
The rate of information transfer as a measure of ocean–atmosphere interactions	5
Glacial runoff buffers droughts through the 21st century	5
Evaluation of global teleconnections in CMIP6 climate projections using complex networks	5
Reliability of resilience estimation based on multi-instrument time series	5
STITCHES: creating new scenarios of climate model output by stitching together pieces of existing simulations	5
Differing precipitation response between solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal due to fast and slow components	5
Accounting for surface waves improves gas flux estimation at high wind speed in a large lake	5
The response of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling under different aerosol-based radiation management geoengineering	5
Daytime low-level clouds in West Africa – occurrence, associated drivers, and shortwave radiation attenuation	5
Climate change projections of terrestrial primary productivity over the Hindu Kush Himalayan forests	5
Persistent La Niñas drive joint soybean harvest failures in North and South America	5
Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks	5