Earth System Dynamics

Article	Citations
Extending MESMER-X: a spatially resolved Earth system model emulator for fire weather and soil moisture	208
Impact of Greenland Ice Sheet disintegration on atmosphere and ocean disentangled	116
Carbon cycle and climate feedbacks under CO 2 and non-CO 2 overshoot pathways	71
Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis	59
Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region as simulated by CESM1-LE	54
Climate change metrics: bridging IPCC AR6 updates and dynamic life cycle assessments	53
Constraining uncertainty in projected precipitation over land with causal discovery	50
Beyond tipping points: risks, equity, and the ethics of intervention	46
A theoretical framework to understand sources of error in Earth System Model emulation	42
How polar-midlatitude atmospheric teleconnections depend on regional sea ice fraction and global warming level	41
Permafrost response and feedback under temperature stabilization and overshoot scenarios with different global warming levels	40
Applying global warming levels of emergence to highlight the increasing population exposure to temperature and precipitation extremes	38
An overview of the E3SM version 2 large ensemble and comparison to other E3SM and CESM large ensembles	34
Exploration of diverse solutions for the calibration of imperfect climate models	34
Spatiotemporal variation of growth–stage specific concurrent climate extremes and their impacts on rice yield in southern China	31
Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability	30
The link between European warm-temperature extremes and atmospheric persistence	29
ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world	28
Contrasting projections of the ENSO-driven CO 2 flux variability in the equatorial Pacific under high-warming scenario	28
Estimating lateral nitrogen transfers over the last century through the global river network using a land surface model	27
Combining machine learning and SMILEs to classify, better understand, and project changes in ENSO events	27
Changes in apparent temperature and PM 2.5 around the Beijing–Tianjin megalopolis under greenhouse gas and stratospheric aerosol intervention scenari	26
Evaluating uncertainty in aerosol forcing of tropical precipitation shifts	23
Biogeochemical versus biogeophysical temperature effects of historical land-use change in CMIP6	23
Exploring the relationship between temperature forecast errors and Earth system variables	22

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability in equilibrated warmer climates	22
Developing Guidelines for working with Multi-Model Ensembles in CMIP	22
The European summer heatwave of 2019 – a regional storyline perspective	22
Emerging global freshwater challenges unveiled through observation-constrained projections	22
Investigation of the extreme wet–cold compound events changes between 2025–2049 and 1980–2004 using regional simulations in Greece	21
Driving sustainability transitions through financial tipping points	21
Ocean biogeochemical reconstructions to estimate historical ocean CO 2 uptake	21
Regionally optimized high-resolution input datasets enhance the representation of snow cover in CLM5	20
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review	20
Global stability and tipping point prediction in a coral–algae model using landscape–flux theory	19
Variability and predictability of a reduced-order land–atmosphere coupled model	18
Scaling artificial heat islands to enhance precipitation in the United Arab Emirates	18
Similar North Pacific variability despite suppressed El Niño variability in the warm mid-Pliocene climate	18
Derailment risk: A systems analysis that identifies risks which could derail the sustainability transition	17
Future changes in regional inter-monthly precipitation patterns of the East Asian summer monsoon and associated uncertainty factors	17
Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations	17
Impact of groundwater representation on heat events in regional climate simulations over Europe	17
Earth's future climate and its variability simulated at 9 km global resolution	17
AR6 updates to RF by GHGs and aerosols lowers the probability of accomplishing the Paris Agreement compared to AR5 formulations	17
Potential for bias in effective climate sensitivity from state-dependent energetic imbalance	16
Freshwater input from glacier melt outside Greenland alters modeled northern high-latitude ocean circulation	16
Impact of an acceleration of ice sheet melting on monsoon systems	16
The carbonate pump feedback on alkalinity and the carbon cycle in the 21st century and beyond	16
PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments	16
Compensatory effects conceal large uncertainties in the modelled processes behind the relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and CO 2	16
Global relevance of atmospheric and land surface drivers for hot temperature extremes	16
Potential effect of the marine carbon cycle on the multiple equilibria window of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation	15
Storylines of future drought in the face of uncertain rainfall projections: a New Zealand case study	15
Evaluating nitrogen cycling in terrestrial biosphere models: a disconnect between the carbon and nitrogen cycles	15
Present and future synoptic circulation patterns associated with cold and snowy spells over Italy	15
Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations	15
Regional irreversibility of mean and extreme surface air temperature and precipitation in CMIP6 overshoot scenarios associated with interhemispheric temperature asymmetries	15
Paleogeographic numerical modeling of marginal seas for the Holocene – an exemplary study of the Baltic Sea	14
Simple physics-based adjustments reconcile the results of Eulerian and Lagrangian techniques for moisture tracking in atmospheric rivers	14
A missing link in the carbon cycle: phytoplankton light absorption under RCP emission scenarios	14
Tracing the Snowball bifurcation of aquaplanets through time reveals a fundamental shift in critical-state dynamics	14
A quantitative assessment of air–sea heat flux trends from ERA5 since 1950 in the North Atlantic basin	14
Quantifying the feedback between Antarctic meltwater release and subsurface Southern Ocean warming	13
A new biogeochemical modelling framework (FLaMe-v1.0) for lake methane emissions on the regional scale: development and application to the European domain	13
An enhanced Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought-monitoring method integrating land surface characteristics	13
High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw	13
The modelled climatic response to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trends	12
Seamless seasonal to multi-annual predictions of temperature and Standardized Precipitation Index by constraining transient climate model simulations	12
CMIP6 multi-model assessment of Northeast Atlantic and German Bight storm activity	12
Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China	12
The impacts of elevated CO 2 on forest growth, mortality, and recovery in the Amazon rainforest	12
Solar radiation modification challenges decarbonization with renewable solar energy	12
Direct and indirect application of univariate and multivariate bias corrections on heat-stress indices based on multiple regional-climate-model simulations	12
Lotka's wheel and the long arm of history: how does the distant past determine today's global rate of energy consumption?	12
Land cover and management effects on ecosystem resistance to drought stress	12

Impact of Atlantic multidecadal variability on rainfall intensity distribution and timing of the West African monsoon	12
Persistent La Niñas drive joint soybean harvest failures in North and South America	11
An EOF-Based Emulator of Means and Covariances of Monthly Climate Fields	11
Global terrestrial moisture recycling in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways	11
Equity and justice should underpin the discourse on tipping points	11
Tipping point detection and early warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems	11
Observation-based temperature and freshwater noise over the Atlantic Ocean	10
The implications of maintaining Earth's hemispheric albedo symmetry for shortwave radiative feedbacks	10
A simple physical model for glacial cycles	10
Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable resource use in a social–ecological multi-layer network model	10
Influence of floodplains and groundwater dynamics on the present-day climate simulated by the CNRM climate model	10
Seasonal forecasting skill for the High Mountain Asia region in the Goddard Earth Observing System	10
Estimating freshwater flux amplification with ocean tracers via linear response theory	10
The long-term impact of transgressing planetary boundaries on biophysical atmosphere–land interactions	10
Critical freshwater forcing for AMOC tipping in climate models – compensation matters	9
Projected changes in land carbon store over the 21st century: what contributions from land use change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition?	9
Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth system model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models	9
Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing	9
Carbon–climate feedback higher when assuming Michaelis–Menten kinetics of respiration	9
The response of the regional longwave radiation balance and climate system in Europe to an idealized afforestation experiment	9
Absence of causality between seismic activity and global warming	9
Bayesian analysis of early warning signals using a time-dependent model	8
Tipping cascades between conflict and cooperation in climate change	8
Nonlinear causal dependencies as a signature of the complexity of the climate dynamics	8
Countries most exposed to individual and concurrent extremes and near-permanent extreme conditions at different global warming levels	8
Snowball Earth transitions from Last Glacial Maximum conditions provide an independent upper limit on Earth's climate sensitivity	8
Diagnosing aerosol–meteorological interactions on snow within Earth system models: a proof-of-concept study over High Mountain Asia	8
Regional dynamical and statistical downscaling temperature, humidity and wind speed for the Beijing region under stratospheric aerosol injection geoengineering	7
Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 western–central European soil drought	7
The perfect storm? Co-occurring climate extremes in East Africa	7
Future changes in runoff over western and central Europe: disentangling the hydrological behavior of CMIP6 models	7
Remote carbon cycle changes are overlooked impacts of land cover and land management changes	7
Exploring the opportunities and challenges of using large language models to represent institutional agency in land system modelling	7
Indices of extremes: geographic patterns of change in extremes and associated vegetation impacts under climate intervention	7
Characteristics of agricultural droughts in CMIP6 historical simulations and future projections	7
Disentangling the climate divide with emotional patterns: a network-based mindset reconstruction approach	7
The global impact of the transport sectors on the atmospheric aerosol and the resulting climate effects under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)	7
Carbon dioxide removal via macroalgae open-ocean mariculture and sinking: an Earth system modeling study	7
Changing effects of external forcing on Atlantic–Pacific interactions	6
Generalized stability landscape of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation	6
Detecting transitions and quantifying differences in two SST datasets using spatial permutation entropy	6
Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe	6
Early opportunity signals of a tipping point in the UK's second-hand electric vehicle market	6
Dakar Niño under global warming investigated by a high-resolution regionally coupled model	6
Advancing the estimation of future climate impacts within the United States	6
The interaction of solar radiation modification with Earth system tipping elements	6
Hemispherically symmetric strategies for stratospheric aerosol injection	6
Process-based estimate of global-mean sea-level changes in the Common Era	6
Change in negative emission burden between an overshoot versus peak-shaved stratospheric aerosol injection pathway	6
Diagnosing the causes of AMOC slowdown in a coupled model: a cautionary tale	6
Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation	6
ESD Ideas: Arctic amplification's contribution to breaches of the Paris Agreement	6
Spatiotemporal changes in the boreal forest in Siberia over the period 1985–2015 against the background of climate change	6
Continental heat storage: contributions from the ground, inland waters, and permafrost thawing	6
Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization	5
Effect of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on atmospheric p CO 2 variations	5
Ensemble forecast of an index of the Madden–Julian Oscillation using a stochastic weather generator based on circulation analogs	5
An updated assessment of past and future warming over France based on a regional observational constraint	5
Natural marine bromoform emissions in the fully coupled ocean–atmosphere model NorESM2	5
Milankovitch theory “as an initial value problem”: Implications of the long memory of ice advection	5
Synchronization phenomena observed in glacial–interglacial cycles simulated in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity	5
Estimating ocean heat content from the ocean thermal expansion parameters using satellite data	5
Observation-inferred resilience loss of the Amazon rainforest possibly due to internal climate variability	5
Causal mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 models	5
Developing the Svalbard Integrated Arctic Earth Observing System (SIOS)	5
The preseason warming of the Indian Ocean resulting in soybean failure in US	5
Sea-ice thermodynamics can determine waterbelt scenarios for Snowball Earth	5
Understanding variations in downwelling longwave radiation using Brutsaert's equation	5
Vegetation and fire regimes in the Neotropics over the last 21 000 years	5
Enhanced climate reproducibility testing with false discovery rate correction	5
Joint evolution of irrigation, the water cycle and water resources under a strong climate change scenario from 1950 to 2100 in the IPSL-CM6	5
Multi-centennial evolution of the climate response and deep-ocean heat uptake in a set of abrupt stabilization scenarios with EC-Earth3	5
Late Pliocene ice sheets as an analogue for future climate: a sensitivity study of the polar Southern Hemisphere	5
Low confidence in multi-decadal trends of wind-driven upwelling across the Benguela Upwelling System	5
Resilience of UK crop yields to compound climate change	4
Rate-induced tipping in natural and human systems	4
Leveraging the satellite-based climate data record CLARA-A3 to understand the climatic trend regimes relevant for solar energy applications over Europe	4
Dynamic vegetation highlights first-order climate feedbacks and their dependence on the climate mean state	4
A global threshold model of enabling conditions for social tipping in pro-environmental behaviours – the role of sea level rise anticipation and climate change concern	4
Classification of synoptic circulation patterns with a two-stage clustering algorithm using the modified structural similarity index metric (SSIM)	4

Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways	4
ESD Ideas: planetary antifragility: a new dimension in the definition of the safe operating space for humanity	4
The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority	4
Missing the (tipping) point: the effect of information about climate tipping points on public risk perceptions in Norway	4
Multi-annual predictions of hot, dry and hot-dry compound extremes	4
Response of ice sheets, sea-ice and sea level in climate stabilisation and reversibility simulations using a state-of-the-art Earth System Model	4
Evidence of localised Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models	4
The biogeophysical effects of idealized land cover and land management changes in Earth system models	4
Intensity and dynamics of extreme cold spells of the 21st century in France from CMIP6 data	4
Possible role of anthropogenic climate change in the record-breaking 2020 Lake Victoria levels and floods	4
Improving the prediction of the Madden–Julian Oscillation of the ECMWF model by post-processing	4
Emergent constraints for the climate system as effective parameters of bulk differential equations	4
Environmental drivers and remote sensing proxies of post-fire thaw depth in eastern Siberian larch forests	4
Effect of horizontal resolution in North Atlantic mixing and ocean circulation in the EC-Earth3P HighResMIP simulations	4
Early warnings of the transition to a superrotating atmospheric state	4
Estimating the lateral transfer of organic carbon through the European river network using a land surface model	4
Extrapolation is not enough: impacts of extreme land use change on wind profiles and wind energy according to regional climate models	4
The Indonesian Throughflow circulation under solar geoengineering	4
How does the phytoplankton–light feedback affect the marine N 2 O inventory?	4
Distribution-based pooling for combination and multi-model bias correction of climate simulations	4
The state of global catastrophic risk research: a bibliometric review	4
“History in a bottle”: tipping dynamics in packaging systems – the case of how a bottle reuse system was established and then undone	4
Ensemble design for seasonal climate predictions: studying extreme Arctic sea ice lows with a rare event algorithm	4
Energetics of monsoons and deserts: role of surface albedo vs water vapor feedback	4
Food trade disruption after global catastrophes	4
The biogeophysical effects of idealized land cover and land management changes in Earth system models	4