Earth System Dynamics

Article	Citations
Extending MESMER-X: a spatially resolved Earth system model emulator for fire weather and soil moisture	225
Climate change metrics: bridging IPCC AR6 updates and dynamic life cycle assessments	192
Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region as simulated by CESM1-LE	184
Carbon cycle and climate feedbacks under CO 2 and non-CO 2 overshoot pathways	123
Constraining uncertainty in projected precipitation over land with causal discovery	92
Beyond tipping points: risks, equity, and the ethics of intervention	88
Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis	84
Impact of Greenland Ice Sheet disintegration on atmosphere and ocean disentangled	84
Applying global warming levels of emergence to highlight the increasing population exposure to temperature and precipitation extremes	77
Permafrost response and feedback under temperature stabilization and overshoot scenarios with different global warming levels	71
Exploration of diverse solutions for the calibration of imperfect climate models	65
How polar-midlatitude atmospheric teleconnections depend on regional sea ice fraction and global warming level	63
Extreme weather and societal impacts in the eastern Mediterranean	47
ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world	46
Contrasting projections of the ENSO-driven CO 2 flux variability in the equatorial Pacific under high-warming scenario	43
Sedimentary microplankton distributions are shaped by oceanographically connected areas	42
Spatiotemporal variation of growth–stage specific concurrent climate extremes and their impacts on rice yield in southern China	39
Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability	38
The link between European warm-temperature extremes and atmospheric persistence	38
An overview of the E3SM version 2 large ensemble and comparison to other E3SM and CESM large ensembles	38
Human impacts and their interactions in the Baltic Sea region	35
Biogeochemical functioning of the Baltic Sea	33
Driving sustainability transitions through financial tipping points	30
Changes in apparent temperature and PM 2.5 around the Beijing–Tianjin megalopolis under greenhouse gas and stratospheric aerosol intervention scenari	30
Estimating lateral nitrogen transfers over the last century through the global river network using a land surface model	30

The European summer heatwave of 2019 – a regional storyline perspective	27
Ocean biogeochemical reconstructions to estimate historical ocean CO 2 uptake	27
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability in equilibrated warmer climates	26
Exploring the relationship between temperature forecast errors and Earth system variables	25
Investigation of the extreme wet–cold compound events changes between 2025–2049 and 1980–2004 using regional simulations in Greece	25
Evaluating uncertainty in aerosol forcing of tropical precipitation shifts	24
Combining machine learning and SMILEs to classify, better understand, and project changes in ENSO events	22
Widespread greening suggests increased dry-season plant water availability in the Rio Santa valley, Peruvian Andes	22
Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations	21
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review	21
Biogeochemical versus biogeophysical temperature effects of historical land-use change in CMIP6	21
Similar North Pacific variability despite suppressed El Niño variability in the warm mid-Pliocene climate	20
Regionally optimized high-resolution input datasets enhance the representation of snow cover in CLM5	20
Agricultural management effects on mean and extreme temperature trends	19
Scaling artificial heat islands to enhance precipitation in the United Arab Emirates	18
Global relevance of atmospheric and land surface drivers for hot temperature extremes	18
Impact of groundwater representation on heat events in regional climate simulations over Europe	17
AR6 updates to RF by GHGs and aerosols lowers the probability of accomplishing the Paris Agreement compared to AR5 formulations	17
Global stability and tipping point prediction in a coral–algae model using landscape–flux theory	17
Variability and predictability of a reduced-order land–atmosphere coupled model	17
Future changes in regional inter-monthly precipitation patterns of the East Asian summer monsoon and associated uncertainty factors	17
Earth's future climate and its variability simulated at 9 km global resolution	17
Natural hazards and extreme events in the Baltic Sea region	16
Regional irreversibility of mean and extreme surface air temperature and precipitation in CMIP6 overshoot scenarios associated with interhemispheric temperature asymmetries	16
Derailment risk: A systems analysis that identifies risks which could derail the sustainability transition	16
Potential for bias in effective climate sensitivity from state-dependent energetic imbalance	15
Potential effect of the marine carbon cycle on the multiple equilibria window of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation	15
Evaluating nitrogen cycling in terrestrial biosphere models: a disconnect between the carbon and nitrogen cycles	15
The carbonate pump feedback on alkalinity and the carbon cycle in the 21st century and beyond	14
Present and future synoptic circulation patterns associated with cold and snowy spells over Italy	14
Storylines of future drought in the face of uncertain rainfall projections: a New Zealand case study	14
Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations	14
PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments	14
Freshwater input from glacier melt outside Greenland alters modeled northern high-latitude ocean circulation	14
Compensatory effects conceal large uncertainties in the modelled processes behind the relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and CO 2	14
Quantifying the feedback between Antarctic meltwater release and subsurface Southern Ocean warming	13
High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw	13
A missing link in the carbon cycle: phytoplankton light absorption under RCP emission scenarios	13
A quantitative assessment of air–sea heat flux trends from ERA5 since 1950 in the North Atlantic basin	13
Impact of an acceleration of ice sheet melting on monsoon systems	13
Paleogeographic numerical modeling of marginal seas for the Holocene – an exemplary study of the Baltic Sea	13
Tracing the Snowball bifurcation of aquaplanets through time reveals a fundamental shift in critical-state dynamics	13
Quantifying memory and persistence in the atmosphere–land and ocean carbon system	12
Solar radiation modification challenges decarbonization with renewable solar energy	12
CO 2 surface variability: from the stratosphere or not?	12
Simple physics-based adjustments reconcile the results of Eulerian and Lagrangian techniques for moisture tracking in atmospheric rivers	12
Lotka's wheel and the long arm of history: how does the distant past determine today's global rate of energy consumption?	12
Seamless seasonal to multi-annual predictions of temperature and Standardized Precipitation Index by constraining transient climate model simulations	12
An enhanced Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought-monitoring method integrating land surface characteristics	12
A new biogeochemical modelling framework (FLaMe-v1.0) for lake methane emissions on the regional scale: development and application to the European domain	12

The modelled climatic response to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trends	12
Land cover and management effects on ecosystem resistance to drought stress	11
Persistent La Niñas drive joint soybean harvest failures in North and South America	11
The impacts of elevated CO 2 on forest growth, mortality, and recovery in the Amazon rainforest	11
Impact of Atlantic multidecadal variability on rainfall intensity distribution and timing of the West African monsoon	11
Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China	11
Direct and indirect application of univariate and multivariate bias corrections on heat-stress indices based on multiple regional-climate-model simulations	11
Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable resource use in a social–ecological multi-layer network model	10
The long-term impact of transgressing planetary boundaries on biophysical atmosphere–land interactions	10
Equity and justice should underpin the discourse on tipping points	10
Indian Ocean marine biogeochemical variability and its feedback on simulated South Asia climate	10
The response of the regional longwave radiation balance and climate system in Europe to an idealized afforestation experiment	10
Tipping point detection and early warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems	10
Observation-based temperature and freshwater noise over the Atlantic Ocean	10
The implications of maintaining Earth's hemispheric albedo symmetry for shortwave radiative feedbacks	10
Global terrestrial moisture recycling in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways	10
Estimating freshwater flux amplification with ocean tracers via linear response theory	9
Absence of causality between seismic activity and global warming	9
The fractional energy balance equation for climate projections through 2100	9
Carbon–climate feedback higher when assuming Michaelis–Menten kinetics of respiration	9
Weakened impact of the Atlantic Niño on the future equatorial Atlantic and Guinea Coast rainfall	9
Influence of floodplains and groundwater dynamics on the present-day climate simulated by the CNRM climate model	9
Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing	9
A simple physical model for glacial cycles	9
Seasonal forecasting skill for the High Mountain Asia region in the Goddard Earth Observing System	9
Projected changes in land carbon store over the 21st century: what contributions from land use change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition?	9
Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth system model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models	9
Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 western–central European soil drought	8
Regional dynamical and statistical downscaling temperature, humidity and wind speed for the Beijing region under stratospheric aerosol injection geoengineering	8
Tipping cascades between conflict and cooperation in climate change	8
Exploring the opportunities and challenges of using large language models to represent institutional agency in land system modelling	8
Countries most exposed to individual and concurrent extremes and near-permanent extreme conditions at different global warming levels	8
Remote carbon cycle changes are overlooked impacts of land cover and land management changes	8
Diagnosing aerosol–meteorological interactions on snow within Earth system models: a proof-of-concept study over High Mountain Asia	8
Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100	8
Bayesian analysis of early warning signals using a time-dependent model	8
Nonlinear causal dependencies as a signature of the complexity of the climate dynamics	8
Indices of extremes: geographic patterns of change in extremes and associated vegetation impacts under climate intervention	7
The perfect storm? Co-occurring climate extremes in East Africa	7
Disentangling the climate divide with emotional patterns: a network-based mindset reconstruction approach	7
Early opportunity signals of a tipping point in the UK's second-hand electric vehicle market	7
Future changes in runoff over western and central Europe: disentangling the hydrological behavior of CMIP6 models	7
The global impact of the transport sectors on the atmospheric aerosol and the resulting climate effects under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)	7
Carbon dioxide removal via macroalgae open-ocean mariculture and sinking: an Earth system modeling study	7
Generalized stability landscape of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation	6
Process-based estimate of global-mean sea-level changes in the Common Era	6
Sensitivity of land–atmosphere coupling strength to changing atmospheric temperature and moisture over Europe	6
Spatiotemporal changes in the boreal forest in Siberia over the period 1985–2015 against the background of climate change	6
Diagnosing the causes of AMOC slowdown in a coupled model: a cautionary tale	6
Continental heat storage: contributions from the ground, inland waters, and permafrost thawing	6
Change in negative emission burden between an overshoot versus peak-shaved stratospheric aerosol injection pathway	6
Downscaling of climate change scenarios for a high-resolution, site-specific assessment of drought stress risk for two viticultural regions with heterogeneous landscapes	5
Developing the Svalbard Integrated Arctic Earth Observing System (SIOS)	5
Vegetation and fire regimes in the Neotropics over the last 21 000 years	5
Understanding variations in downwelling longwave radiation using Brutsaert's equation	5
Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization	5
Estimating ocean heat content from the ocean thermal expansion parameters using satellite data	5
Effect of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on atmospheric p CO 2 variations	5
Observation-inferred resilience loss of the Amazon rainforest possibly due to internal climate variability	5
Synchronization phenomena observed in glacial–interglacial cycles simulated in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity	5
Causal mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 models	5
The interaction of solar radiation modification with Earth system tipping elements	5
Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe	5
Dakar Niño under global warming investigated by a high-resolution regionally coupled model	5
Advancing the estimation of future climate impacts within the United States	5
Global climate change and the Baltic Sea ecosystem: direct and indirect effects on species, communities and ecosystem functioning	5
Ensemble forecast of an index of the Madden–Julian Oscillation using a stochastic weather generator based on circulation analogs	5
The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections	5
Hemispherically symmetric strategies for stratospheric aerosol injection	5
Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation	5
Changing effects of external forcing on Atlantic–Pacific interactions	5
ESD Ideas: Arctic amplification's contribution to breaches of the Paris Agreement	5
An updated assessment of past and future warming over France based on a regional observational constraint	5
Joint evolution of irrigation, the water cycle and water resources under a strong climate change scenario from 1950 to 2100 in the IPSL-CM6	4
Milankovitch theory “as an initial value problem”: Implications of the long memory of ice advection	4
Multi-centennial evolution of the climate response and deep-ocean heat uptake in a set of abrupt stabilization scenarios with EC-Earth3	4
Atmospheric rivers in CMIP5 climate ensembles downscaled with a high-resolution regional climate model	4
The state of global catastrophic risk research: a bibliometric review	4
The Indonesian Throughflow circulation under solar geoengineering	4
The preseason warming of the Indian Ocean resulting in soybean failure in US	4

Sea-ice thermodynamics can determine waterbelt scenarios for Snowball Earth	4
Late Pliocene ice sheets as an analogue for future climate: a sensitivity study of the polar Southern Hemisphere	4
Improving the prediction of the Madden–Julian Oscillation of the ECMWF model by post-processing	4
“History in a bottle”: tipping dynamics in packaging systems – the case of how a bottle reuse system was established and then undone	4
Emergent constraints for the climate system as effective parameters of bulk differential equations	4
Natural marine bromoform emissions in the fully coupled ocean–atmosphere model NorESM2	4
Low confidence in multi-decadal trends of wind-driven upwelling across the Benguela Upwelling System	4
Coupling human and natural systems for sustainability: experience from China's Loess Plateau	4
Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways	4
Possible role of anthropogenic climate change in the record-breaking 2020 Lake Victoria levels and floods	4
Leveraging the satellite-based climate data record CLARA-A3 to understand the climatic trend regimes relevant for solar energy applications over Europe	4