Earth System Dynamics

Article	Citations
Carbon cycle and climate feedbacks under CO2 and non-CO2 overshoot pathways	282
Beyond tipping points: risks, equity, and the ethics of intervention	209
Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region as simulated by CESM1-LE	179
Impact of Greenland Ice Sheet disintegration on atmosphere and ocean disentangled	170
Extending MESMER-X: a spatially resolved Earth system model emulator for fire weather and soil moisture	116
Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis	86
Constraining uncertainty in projected precipitation over land with causal discovery	86
Exploration of diverse solutions for the calibration of imperfect climate models	77
Applying global warming levels of emergence to highlight the increasing population exposure to temperature and precipitation extremes	76
Permafrost response and feedback under temperature stabilization and overshoot scenarios with different global warming levels	72
Extreme weather and societal impacts in the eastern Mediterranean	69
An overview of the E3SM version 2 large ensemble and comparison to other E3SM and CESM large ensembles	69
Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability	63
Sedimentary microplankton distributions are shaped by oceanographically connected areas	59
ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world	57
The link between European warm-temperature extremes and atmospheric persistence	52
Biogeochemical functioning of the Baltic Sea	46
Contrasting projections of the ENSO-driven CO2 flux variability in the equatorial Pacific under high-warming scenario	40
Human impacts and their interactions in the Baltic Sea region	40
Evaluating uncertainty in aerosol forcing of tropical precipitation shifts	39
Combining machine learning and SMILEs to classify, better understand, and project changes in ENSO events	38
Ocean biogeochemical reconstructions to estimate historical ocean CO2 uptake	36
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability in equilibrated warmer climates	36
Estimating lateral nitrogen transfers over the last century through the global river network using a land surface model	36
The European summer heatwave of 2019 – a regional storyline perspective	35

Widespread greening suggests increased dry-season plant water availability in the Rio Santa valley, Peruvian Andes	34
Driving sustainability transitions through financial tipping points	33
Investigation of the extreme wet–cold compound events changes between 2025–2049 and 1980–2004 using regional simulations in Greece	32
Biogeochemical versus biogeophysical temperature effects of historical land-use change in CMIP6	30
Exploring the relationship between temperature forecast errors and Earth system variables	28
Changes in apparent temperature and PM2.5 around the Beijing–Tianjin megalopolis under greenhouse gas and stratospheric aerosol intervention scenarios	27
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review	26
Variability and predictability of a reduced-order land–atmosphere coupled model	26
Regionally optimized high-resolution input datasets enhance the representation of snow cover in CLM5	25
Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations	24
Future changes in regional inter-monthly precipitation patterns of the East Asian summer monsoon and associated uncertainty factors	24
Scaling artificial heat islands to enhance precipitation in the United Arab Emirates	23
Impact of groundwater representation on heat events in regional climate simulations over Europe	22
Derailment risk: A systems analysis that identifies risks which could derail the sustainability transition	22
Global relevance of atmospheric and land surface drivers for hot temperature extremes	20
AR6 updates to RF by GHGs and aerosols lowers the probability of accomplishing the Paris Agreement compared to AR5 formulations	19
Agricultural management effects on mean and extreme temperature trends	19
Global stability and tipping point prediction in a coral–algae model using landscape–flux theory	19
Earth's future climate and its variability simulated at 9 km global resolution	19
Similar North Pacific variability despite suppressed El Niño variability in the warm mid-Pliocene climate	19
Natural hazards and extreme events in the Baltic Sea region	18
Freshwater input from glacier melt outside Greenland alters modeled northern high-latitude ocean circulation	17
Compensatory effects conceal large uncertainties in the modelled processes behind the relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and CO2	17
Potential effect of the marine carbon cycle on the multiple equilibria window of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation	17
Impact of an acceleration of ice sheet melting on monsoon systems	16
The carbonate pump feedback on alkalinity and the carbon cycle in the 21st century and beyond	16
Regional irreversibility of mean and extreme surface air temperature and precipitation in CMIP6 overshoot scenarios associated with interhemispheric temperature asymmetries	16
Storylines of future drought in the face of uncertain rainfall projections: a New Zealand case study	16
Present and future synoptic circulation patterns associated with cold and snowy spells over Italy	16
Reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on future glacial cycles	16
Process-based analysis of terrestrial carbon flux predictability	16
PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments	15
Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations	15
Potential for bias in effective climate sensitivity from state-dependent energetic imbalance	15
Evaluating nitrogen cycling in terrestrial biosphere models: a disconnect between the carbon and nitrogen cycles	15
A missing link in the carbon cycle: phytoplankton light absorption under RCP emission scenarios	14
Simple physics-based adjustments reconcile the results of Eulerian and Lagrangian techniques for moisture tracking in atmospheric rivers	14
Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability	14
Quantifying the feedback between Antarctic meltwater release and subsurface Southern Ocean warming	14
Paleogeographic numerical modeling of marginal seas for the Holocene – an exemplary study of the Baltic Sea	14
High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw	14
A quantitative assessment of air–sea heat flux trends from ERA5 since 1950 in the North Atlantic basin	14
An enhanced Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought-monitoring method integrating land surface characteristics	13
Balanced estimate and uncertainty assessment of European climate change using the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble	13
Tracing the Snowball bifurcation of aquaplanets through time reveals a fundamental shift in critical-state dynamics	13
Quantifying memory and persistence in the atmosphere–land and ocean carbon system	13
A new biogeochemical modelling framework (FLaMe-v1.0) for lake methane emissions on the regional scale: development and application to the European domain	13
Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China	12
CO2 surface variability: from the stratosphere or not?	12
The impacts of elevated CO2 on forest growth, mortality, and recovery in the Amazon rainforest	12

The modelled climatic response to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trends	12
Lotka's wheel and the long arm of history: how does the distant past determine today's global rate of energy consumption?	12
Seamless seasonal to multi-annual predictions of temperature and Standardized Precipitation Index by constraining transient climate model simulations	12
Solar radiation modification challenges decarbonization with renewable solar energy	12
Global terrestrial moisture recycling in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways	11
Tipping point detection and early warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems	11
Land cover and management effects on ecosystem resistance to drought stress	11
Persistent La Niñas drive joint soybean harvest failures in North and South America	11
Indian Ocean marine biogeochemical variability and its feedback on simulated South Asia climate	10
Observation-based temperature and freshwater noise over the Atlantic Ocean	10
Equity and justice should underpin the discourse on tipping points	10
Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable resource use in a social–ecological multi-layer network model	10
The long-term impact of transgressing planetary boundaries on biophysical atmosphere–land interactions	10
Impact of Atlantic multidecadal variability on rainfall intensity distribution and timing of the West African monsoon	10
Absence of causality between seismic activity and global warming	10
Direct and indirect application of univariate and multivariate bias corrections on heat-stress indices based on multiple regional-climate-model simulations	10
The fractional energy balance equation for climate projections through 2100	9
Influence of floodplains and groundwater dynamics on the present-day climate simulated by the CNRM climate model	9
Parameter uncertainty dominates C-cycle forecast errors over most of Brazil for the 21st century	9
Projected changes in land carbon store over the 21st century: what contributions from land use change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition?	9
A simple physical model for glacial cycles	9
Seasonal forecasting skill for the High Mountain Asia region in the Goddard Earth Observing System	9
Carbon–climate feedback higher when assuming Michaelis–Menten kinetics of respiration	9
Estimating freshwater flux amplification with ocean tracers via linear response theory	9
The response of the regional longwave radiation balance and climate system in Europe to an idealized afforestation experiment	9
Weakened impact of the Atlantic Niño on the future equatorial Atlantic and Guinea Coast rainfall	9
Taxonomies for structuring models for World–Earth systems analysis of the Anthropocene: subsystems, their interactions and social–ecological feedback loops	8
Bayesian analysis of early warning signals using a time-dependent model	8
Diagnosing aerosol–meteorological interactions on snow within Earth system models: a proof-of-concept study over High Mountain Asia	8
Remote carbon cycle changes are overlooked impacts of land cover and land management changes	8
Future changes in runoff over western and central Europe: disentangling the hydrological behavior of CMIP6 models	8
Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing	8
Countries most exposed to individual and concurrent extremes and near-permanent extreme conditions at different global warming levels	8
The implications of maintaining Earth's hemispheric albedo symmetry for shortwave radiative feedbacks	8
Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100	8
Indices of extremes: geographic patterns of change in extremes and associated vegetation impacts under climate intervention	8
Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth system model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models	8
Exploring the opportunities and challenges of using large language models to represent institutional agency in land system modelling	8
Tipping cascades between conflict and cooperation in climate change	8
Regional dynamical and statistical downscaling temperature, humidity and wind speed for the Beijing region under stratospheric aerosol injection geoengineering	8
Disentangling the climate divide with emotional patterns: a network-based mindset reconstruction approach	8
Nonlinear causal dependencies as a signature of the complexity of the climate dynamics	8
Wind speed stilling and its recovery due to internal climate variability	7
Carbon dioxide removal via macroalgae open-ocean mariculture and sinking: an Earth system modeling study	7
Dakar Niño under global warming investigated by a high-resolution regionally coupled model	7
Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 western–central European soil drought	7
The perfect storm? Co-occurring climate extremes in East Africa	7
Early opportunity signals of a tipping point in the UK's second-hand electric vehicle market	7
Process-based estimate of global-mean sea-level changes in the Common Era	7
The global impact of the transport sectors on the atmospheric aerosol and the resulting climate effects under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)	7
Sensitivity of land–atmosphere coupling strength to changing atmospheric temperature and moisture over Europe	7
Spatiotemporal changes in the boreal forest in Siberia over the period 1985–2015 against the background of climate change	7
How can solar geoengineering and mitigation be combined under climate targets?	6
The interaction of solar radiation modification with Earth system tipping elements	6
Generalized stability landscape of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation	6
Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe	6
Changing effects of external forcing on Atlantic–Pacific interactions	6
Continental heat storage: contributions from the ground, inland waters, and permafrost thawing	6
Diagnosing the causes of AMOC slowdown in a coupled model: a cautionary tale	6
Understanding variations in downwelling longwave radiation using Brutsaert's equation	6
Change in negative emission burden between an overshoot versus peak-shaved stratospheric aerosol injection pathway	6
Hemispherically symmetric strategies for stratospheric aerosol injection	5
Effect of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on atmospheric pCO2 variations	5
Observation-inferred resilience loss of the Amazon rainforest possibly due to internal climate variability	5
An updated assessment of past and future warming over France based on a regional observational constraint	5
Causal mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 models	5
Advancing the estimation of future climate impacts within the United States	5
ESD Ideas: Arctic amplification's contribution to breaches of the Paris Agreement	5
Estimating ocean heat content from the ocean thermal expansion parameters using satellite data	5
Developing the Svalbard Integrated Arctic Earth Observing System (SIOS)	5
Downscaling of climate change scenarios for a high-resolution, site-specific assessment of drought stress risk for two viticultural regions with heterogeneous landscapes	5
The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections	5
Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization	5
Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation	5
Vegetation and fire regimes in the Neotropics over the last 21 000 years	5
Ensemble forecast of an index of the Madden–Julian Oscillation using a stochastic weather generator based on circulation analogs	5
Synchronization phenomena observed in glacial–interglacial cycles simulated in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity	5
Global climate change and the Baltic Sea ecosystem: direct and indirect effects on species, communities and ecosystem functioning	5
Improving the prediction of the Madden–Julian Oscillation of the ECMWF model by post-processing	4
Late Pliocene ice sheets as an analogue for future climate: a sensitivity study of the polar Southern Hemisphere	4

How does the phytoplankton–light feedback affect the marine N2O inventory?	4
Extrapolation is not enough: impacts of extreme land use change on wind profiles and wind energy according to regional climate models	4
Natural marine bromoform emissions in the fully coupled ocean–atmosphere model NorESM2	4
Climate change impacts on solar power generation and its spatial variability in Europe based on CMIP6	4
“History in a bottle”: tipping dynamics in packaging systems – the case of how a bottle reuse system was established and then undone	4
The state of global catastrophic risk research: a bibliometric review	4
The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority	4
Atmospheric rivers in CMIP5 climate ensembles downscaled with a high-resolution regional climate model	4
Multi-centennial evolution of the climate response and deep-ocean heat uptake in a set of abrupt stabilization scenarios with EC-Earth3	4
Coupling human and natural systems for sustainability: experience from China's Loess Plateau	4
Possible role of anthropogenic climate change in the record-breaking 2020 Lake Victoria levels and floods	4
Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways	4
Ensemble design for seasonal climate predictions: studying extreme Arctic sea ice lows with a rare event algorithm	4
Sea-ice thermodynamics can determine waterbelt scenarios for Snowball Earth	4
Low confidence in multi-decadal trends of wind-driven upwelling across the Benguela Upwelling System	4