Epidemics

Article	Citations
The early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy	136
The time scale of asymptomatic transmission affects estimates of epidemic potential in the COVID-19 outbreak	113
Real-time forecasting of epidemic trajectories using computational dynamic ensembles	57
The effects of border control and quarantine measures on the spread of COVID-19	56
Estimating the generation interval and inferring the latent period of COVID-19 from the contact tracing data	53
A wastewater-based epidemic model for SARS-CoV-2 with application to three Canadian cities	51
Modelling the early phase of the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic using a stochastic compartmental model and studying its implied future trajectories	51
Egocentric sexual networks of men who have sex with men in the United States: Results from the ARTnet study	47
Estimation of the incubation period of COVID-19 using viral load data	42
Memory is key in capturing COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics	42
Chopping the tail: How preventing superspreading can help to maintain COVID-19 control	39
Temperature-dependent variation in the extrinsic incubation period elevates the risk of vector-borne disease emergence	35
A model for COVID-19 with isolation, quarantine and testing as control measures	33
Quantification of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 in Switzerland	31
Estimated prevalence of undiagnosed HCV infected individuals in Italy: A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression	30
Assessing the nationwide impact of COVID-19 mitigation policies on the transmission rate of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil	30
Influencing public health policy with data-informed mathematical models of infectious diseases: Recent developments and new challenges	29
Noroviruses are highly infectious but there is strong variation in host susceptibility and virus pathogenicity	28
Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics	28
Impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in Switzerland	27
The forecasting of dynamical Ross River virus outbreaks: Victoria, Australia	25
How mechanistic modelling supports decision making for the control of enzootic infectious diseases	25
Modeling waning and boosting of COVID-19 in Canada with vaccination	22
An evaluation of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo performance to calibrate age-structured compartmental SEIR models to incidence data	21
Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife–human interface	20

Designing a typhoid environmental surveillance study: A simulation model for optimum sampling site allocation	20
The impact of lockdown strategies targeting age groups on the burden of COVID-19 in France	20
Assessing the efficacy of interventions to control indoor SARS-Cov-2 transmission: An agent-based modeling approach	19
Transmission of and susceptibility to seasonal influenza in Switzerland from 2003 to 2015	19
Assessing the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Belgium by means of an extended SEIQRD model and public mobility data	19
COVID-19 Belgium: Extended SEIR-QD model with nursing homes and long-term scenarios-based forecasts	18
Rational evaluation of various epidemic models based on the COVID-19 data of China	17
Determinants of RSV epidemiology following suppression through pandemic contact restrictions	17
Lessons for preparedness and reasons for concern from the early COVID-19 epidemic in Iran	17
Game theory of vaccination and depopulation for managing livestock diseases and zoonoses on small-scale farms	16
Modelling SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a UK university setting	16
Choices and trade-offs in inference with infectious disease models	15
To quarantine, or not to quarantine: A theoretical framework for disease control via contact tracing	15
Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling	15
Competition between RSV and influenza: Limits of modelling inference from surveillance data	14
Prospects of toxoplasmosis control by cat vaccination	14
Epidemiological impact of targeted interventions for people with diabetes mellitus on tuberculosis transmission in India: Modelling based predictions	14
Challenges of evaluating and modelling vaccination in emerging infectious diseases	14
Appropriately smoothing prevalence data to inform estimates of growth rate and reproduction number	14
Social contact patterns among employees in 3 U.S. companies during early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, April to June 2020	14
Modelling suggests ABO histo-incompatibility may substantially reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission	13
COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan demonstrates the limitations of publicly available case numbers for epidemiological modeling	13
Bayesian sequential data assimilation for COVID-19 forecasting	13
The impact of social distancing, contact tracing, and case isolation interventions to suppress the COVID-19 epidemic: A modeling study	13
A new logistic growth model applied to COVID-19 fatality data	13
Quantifying transmission fitness costs of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis	13
Impacts of K-12 school reopening on the COVID-19 epidemic in Indiana, USA	13
Variability in transmission risk of SARS-CoV-2 in close contact settings: A contact tracing study in Shandong Province, China	13
Optimal allocation of PCR tests to minimise disease transmission through contact tracing and quarantine	13
How much leeway is there to relax COVID-19 control measures?	12
Nationally representative social contact patterns among U.S. adults, August 2020-April 2021	12
Pseudo-likelihood based logistic regression for estimating COVID-19 infection and case fatality rates by gender, race, and age in California	12
Small world in the real world: Long distance dispersal governs epidemic dynamics in agricultural landscapes	11
Optimally pooled viral testing	11
RAMPVIS: Answering the challenges of building visualisation capabilities for large-scale emergency responses	11
The African swine fever modelling challenge: Model comparison and lessons learnt	11
Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 in British Columbia: An age-structured model with time-dependent contact rates	11
Optimizing COVID-19 control with asymptomatic surveillance testing in a university environment	11
Challenges in modeling the emergence of novel pathogens	11
Quantifying mechanistic traits of influenza viral dynamics using in vitro data	10
Modelling the dynamics of infection, waning of immunity and re-infection with the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Aotearoa New Zealand	10
Tackling hepatitis E virus spread and persistence on farrow-to-finish pig farms: Insights from a stochastic individual-based multi-pathogen model	10
The challenges of data in future pandemics	10
Mathematical modelling of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review	10
Estimating COVID-19 cases and deaths prevented by non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the impact of individual actions: A retrospective model-based analysis	9
Emergence of pertactin-deficient pertussis strains in Australia can be explained by models of vaccine escape	9
Emergence of zoonoses such as COVID-19 reveals the need for health sciences to embrace an explicit eco-social conceptual framework of health and disease	9
Challenges on the interaction of models and policy for pandemic control	9
Quantifying the success of measles vaccination campaigns in the Rohingya refugee camps	9
Communicating uncertainty in epidemic models	8

Assessing the risk of cascading COVID-19 outbreaks from prison-to-prison transfers	8
Tooling-up for infectious disease transmission modelling	8
Identification and evaluation of epidemic prediction and forecasting reporting guidelines: A systematic review and a call for action	8
Bayesian epidemiological modeling over high-resolution network data	8
Sustaining effective COVID-19 control in Malaysia through large-scale vaccination	8
Dynamics of livestock-associated methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus in pig movement networks: Insight from mathematical modeling and French data	8
Estimation of the probability of epidemic fade-out from multiple outbreak data	8
Investigating the relationship between interventions, contact patterns, and SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility	8
A quantitative assessment of epidemiological parameters required to investigate COVID-19 burden	8
Recalibrating the notion of modelling for policymaking during pandemics	8
Dynamic network strategies for SARS-CoV-2 control on a cruise ship	7
Social contacts and other risk factors for respiratory infections among internally displaced people in Somaliland	7
Cross-sectional cycle threshold values reflect epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 in Madagascar	7
Precautionary breaks: Planned, limited duration circuit breaks to control the prevalence of SARS-CoV2 and the burden of COVID-19 disease	7
Impact of inter-hospital transfers on the prevalence of resistant pathogens in a hospital–community system	7
Estimating sea lice infestation pressure on salmon farms: Comparing different methods using multivariate state-space models	7
Effective strategies to promote HIV self-testing for men who have sex with men: Evidence from a mathematical model	7
Responsible modelling: Unit testing for infectious disease epidemiology	7
Geospatial clustering and modelling provide policy guidance to distribute funding for active TB case finding in Ethiopia	7
Modeling the population effects of escape mutations in SARS-CoV-2 to guide vaccination strategies	7
Insight into Delta variant dominated second wave of COVID-19 in Nepal	7
Complementary roles of wild boar and red deer to animal tuberculosis maintenance in multi-host communities	7
Network models and the interpretation of prolonged infection plateaus in the COVID19 pandemic	7
The role of airborne transmission in a large single source outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in a Belgian nursing home in 2020	6
The impact of reactive case detection on malaria transmission in Zanzibar in the presence of human mobility	6
The triple epidemics of arboviruses in Feira de Santana, Brazilian Northeast: Epidemiological characteristics and diffusion patterns	6
How time-scale differences in asymptomatic and symptomatic transmission shape SARS-CoV-2 outbreak dynamics	6
Public health impact of the U.S. Scenario Modeling Hub	6
Participatory syndromic surveillance as a tool for tracking COVID-19 in Bangladesh	6
Deriving risk maps from epidemiological models of vector borne diseases: State-of-the-art and suggestions for best practice	6
A combination of probabilistic and mechanistic approaches for predicting the spread of African swine fever on Merry Island	6
Existing human mobility data sources poorly predicted the spatial spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Madagascar	6
Spatial and temporal clustering of patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza in the United States	6
Measles transmission during a large outbreak in California	6
A semi-parametric mixed model for short-term projection of daily COVID-19 incidence in Canada	6
The African swine fever modelling challenge: Objectives, model description and synthetic data generation	6
Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational TB incidence: An application in Brazil	6
Symptom-based vs asymptomatic testing for controlling SARS-CoV-2 transmission in low- and middle-income countries: A modelling analysis	6
Modelling: Understanding pandemics and how to control them	6
Modelling the epidemic extremities of dengue transmissions in Thailand	6
Who acquires infection from whom? Estimating herpesvirus transmission rates between wild rodent host groups	6
Quantifying heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the lockdown in India	6
Estimating the global reduction in transmission and rise in detection capacity of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in early 2020	5
Modeling the effects of social distancing on the large-scale spreading of diseases	5
Using video-analysis technology to estimate social mixing and simulate influenza transmission at a mass gathering	5
Infectious disease modelling for SARS-CoV-2 in Africa to guide policy: A systematic review	5
Lockdowns exert selection pressure on overdispersion of SARS-CoV-2 variants	5
Realtime case study simulations of transmission of Pancreas Disease (PD) in Norwegian salmonid farming for disease control purposes	5
Heterogeneous infectiousness in mathematical models of tuberculosis: A systematic review	5
Rapid assessment of the risk of SARS-CoV-2 importation: case study and lessons learned	5
Globally local: Hyper-local modeling for accurate forecast of COVID-19	5
Gecko: A time-series model for COVID-19 hospital admission forecasting	5
High-resolution estimates of tuberculosis incidence among non-U.S.-born persons residing in the United States, 2000–2016	5
Simulated effects of increasing salmonid production on sea lice populations in Norway	5
Small area population denominators for improved disease surveillance and response	5
Accounting for cross-immunity can improve forecast accuracy during influenza epidemics	5
Response to COVID-19 during the Tokyo Olympic Games: Did we properly assess the risk?	5
Building resource constraints and feasibility considerations in mathematical models for infectious disease: A systematic literature review	5
It’s risky to wander in September: Modelling the epidemic potential of Rift Valley fever in a Sahelian setting	5
The impact of mobility network properties on predicted epidemic dynamics in Dhaka and Bangkok	5
Stochastic modelling of African swine fever in wild boar and domestic pigs: Epidemic forecasting and comparison of disease management strategies	5
Zika virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate	5
Policy-driven mathematical modeling for COVID-19 pandemic response in the Philippines	5
Epidemiological and genomic findings of the first documented Italian outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant of concern	5
Synchronized spread of COVID-19 in the cities of Bahia, Brazil	5
Modelling lymphatic filariasis elimination in American Samoa: GEOFIL predicts need for new targets and six rounds of mass drug administration	4
Impact of disruptions to routine vaccination programs, quantifying burden of measles, and mapping targeted supplementary immunization activities	4
A framework for evaluating the effects of observational type and quality on vector-borne disease forecast	4
Dose response for Salmonella Typhimurium and Enteritidis and other nontyphoid enteric salmonellae	4
The variations of SIkJalpha model for COVID-19 forecasting and scenario projections	4
Challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens	4
Inferring ASF transmission in domestic pigs and wild boars using a paired model iterative approach	4
Modelling how face masks and symptoms-based quarantine synergistically and cost-effectively reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Bangladesh	4
Infectious disease dynamics and restrictions on social gathering size	4
Development of an influenza pandemic decision support tool linking situational analytics to national response policy	4
Association between meteorological factors and the epidemics of influenza (sub)types in a subtropical basin of Southwest China	4
Timeliness of reporting of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence results and their utility for infectious disease surveillance	4
The performance of phenomenological models in providing near-term Canadian case projections in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic: March – April, 2020	4
An exploration of within-herd dynamics of a transboundary livestock disease: A foot and mouth disease case study	4
A mixed methods analysis of participation in a social contact survey	4

Demonstrating multi-country calibration of a tuberculosis model using new history matching and emulation package - hmer	4
Dynamic modeling of hepatitis C transmission among people who inject drugs	4
Percolation across households in mechanistic models of non-pharmaceutical interventions in SARS-CoV-2 disease dynamics	4
In the shadow of privacy: Overlooked ethical concerns in COVID-19 digital epidemiology	4
A statistical framework for tracking the time-varying superspreading potential of COVID-19 epidemic	4
Combining seroprevalence and capture-mark-recapture data to estimate the force of infection of brucellosis in a managed population of Alpine ibex	4
Contribution and quality of mathematical modeling evidence in World Health Organization guidelines: A systematic review	4