Weather and Forecasting

Article	Citations
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): An Hourly Updating Convection-Allowing Forecast Model. Part I: Motivation and System Description	80
Seasonal Forecast Skill of ENSO Teleconnection Maps	42
Subseasonal Precipitation Prediction for Africa: Forecast Evaluation and Sources of Predictability	36
The Development of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System Version 12	33
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): An Hourly Updating Convection-Allowing Forecast Model. Part II: Forecast Performance	32
Near-Ground Wind Profiles of Tornadic and Nontornadic Environments in the United States and Europe from ERA5 Reanalyses	26
Hurricane Forecasting: A Novel Multimodal Machine Learning Framework	26
Subseasonal Earth System Prediction with CESM2	22
A Machine Learning Tutorial for Operational Meteorology. Part I: Traditional Machine Learning	21
A Deep-Learning Model for Automated Detection of Intense Midlatitude Convection Using Geostationary Satellite Images	20
ARPEGE Cloud Cover Forecast Postprocessing with Convolutional Neural Network	20
Deep Learning Experiments for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts	19
WRF Precipitation Performance and Predictability for Systematically Varied Parameterizations over Complex Terrain	17
Subseasonal Forecast of Surface Air Temperature Using Superensemble Approaches: Experiments over Northeast Asia for 2018	16
Skill of Global Raw and Postprocessed Ensemble Predictions of Rainfall in the Tropics	16
A Simple Model for Predicting the Tropical Cyclone Radius of Maximum Wind from Outer Size	16
Severe Convective Windstorms in Europe: Climatology, Preconvective Environments, and Convective Mode	16
Understanding Error Distributions of Hurricane Intensity Forecasts during Rapid Intensity Changes	16
Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold: Assessing the Atmospheric Potential for pyroCb	16
Global Within-Season Yield Anomaly Prediction for Major Crops Derived Using Seasonal Forecasts of Large-Scale Climate Indices and Regional Temperature and Precipitation	15
Evaluation of the Skill of Monthly Precipitation Forecasts from Global Prediction Systems over the Greater Horn of Africa	15
Evaluation of ECMWF Precipitation Predictions in China during 2015–18	15
What Does a Convection-Allowing Ensemble of Opportunity Buy Us in Forecasting Thunderstorms?	14
Unraveling the Mechanism of Extreme (More than 30 Sigma) Precipitation during August 2018 and 2019 over Kerala, India	14
Do Convection-Permitting Ensembles Lead to More Skillful Short-Range Probabilistic Rainfall Forecasts over Tropical East Africa?	14

Subseasonal Prediction Performance for Austral Summer South American Rainfall	13
Improving Radar-Based Precipitation Nowcasts with Machine Learning Using an Approach Based on Random Forest	13
2019 Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts from the Global-Nested Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System: Composite Statistics and Key Events	13
Dynamical Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity Using the FGOALS-f2 Ensemble Prediction System	13
Evaluating Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation over Southeast Asia	13
Forecasting Convection with a “Scale-Aware” Tiedtke Cumulus Parameterization Scheme at Kilometer Scales	12
Verification of Solid Precipitation Forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction Models in Norway	12
Toward Unifying Short-Term and Next-Day Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecast Systems with a Continuously Cycling 3-km Ensemble Kalman Filter over the Entire Conterminous United States	11
Subseasonal Prediction with and without a Well-Represented Stratosphere in CESM1	11
Boundary Layer and Surface Verification of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, Version 3	10
Real-Time Identification of Equatorial Waves and Evaluation of Waves in Global Forecasts	10
SWRL Net: A Spectral, Residual Deep Learning Model for Improving Short-Term Wave Forecasts	9
A Coffee Yield Next-Generation Forecast System for Rain-Fed Plantations: The Case of the Samalá Watershed in Guatemala	9
An Impact Study of GNSS RO Data on the Prediction of Typhoon Nepartak (2016) Using a Multiresolution Global Model with 3D-Hybrid Data Assimilation	9
A Progress Report on the Development of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble	8
WSR-88D Tornado Intensity Estimates. Part I: Real-Time Probabilities of Peak Tornado Wind Speeds	8
Beyond Strictly Proper Scoring Rules: The Importance of Being Local	8
Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction with an Encoding-to-Forecasting Deep Learning Model	8
The Naval Research Laboratory’s Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System-Tropical Cyclone Ensemble (COAMPS-TC Ensemble)	8
Reforecasting Two Heavy-Precipitation Events with Three Convection-Permitting Ensembles	8
Track Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Errors in the COAMPS-TC Model	8
Sources of Subseasonal Skill and Predictability in Wintertime California Precipitation Forecasts	8
Classification of Precipitation Type in North China Using Model-Based Explicit Fields of Hydrometeors with Modified Thermodynamic Conditions	8
Do Machine Learning Approaches Offer Skill Improvement for Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Gust Occurrence and Magnitude?	8
Skillful Extended-Range Forecast of Rainfall and Extreme Events in East China Based on Deep Learning	7
Radar Reflectivity–Based Model Initialization Using Specified Latent Heating (Radar-LHI) within a Diabatic Digital Filter or Pre-Forecast Integration	7
On the ROC Area of Ensemble Forecasts for Rare Events	7
Developing a Climate Prediction System over Southwest China Using the 8-km Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model: System Design, Model Calibration, and Performance Evaluation	7
A Machine Learning Tutorial for Operational Meteorology. Part II: Neural Networks and Deep Learning	7
Evaluation and Improvement of a TKE-Based Eddy-Diffusivity Mass-Flux (EDMF) Planetary Boundary Layer Scheme in Hurricane Conditions	7
Using the Orthogonal Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations Approach to Address the Uncertainties of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts Generated by the WRF Model	7
Real-Time Simulated Storm Surge Predictions during Hurricane Michael (2018)	7
Atmospheric River Reconnaissance 2021: A Review	7
Assimilation of Radial Velocity from Coastal NEXRAD into HWRF for Improved Forecasts of Landfalling Hurricanes	7
Predicting Rapid Intensification in North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones Using a Convolutional Neural Network	7
WSR-88D Tornado Intensity Estimates. Part II: Real-Time Applications to Tornado Warning Time Scales	7
Diurnal and Seasonal Variability of ERA5 Convective Parameters in Relation to Lightning Flash Rates in Poland	7
Identifying Weather Patterns Associated with Increased Volcanic Ash Risk within British Isles Airspace	7
Generation of Extreme Precipitation over the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau Associated with TC Rashmi (2008)	6
The Use of the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson in the Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Cyclones	6
ProbSevere LightningCast: A Deep-Learning Model for Satellite-Based Lightning Nowcasting	6
Short-Term Visibility Prediction Using Tree-Based Machine Learning Algorithms and Numerical Weather Prediction Data	6
Satellite-Based Nowcasting of West African Mesoscale Storms Has Skill at up to 4-h Lead Time	6
Investigation of Machine Learning Using Satellite-Based Advanced Dvorak Technique Analysis Parameters to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity	6
Improved Prediction of Landfalling Tropical Cyclone in China Based on Assimilation of Radar Radial Winds with New Super-Observation Processing	6
Prototype of a Warn-on-Forecast System for Smoke (WoFS-Smoke)	6
Operational Precipitation Forecast Over China Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model at a Gray-Zone Resolution: Impact of Convection Parameterization	6
Evaluating the 2019 NARO-APCC Joint Crop Forecasting Service Yield Forecasts for Northern Hemisphere Countries	6
Statistical Calibrations of Surface Air Temperature Forecasts over East Asia using Pattern Projection Methods	6
Quantification of NSSL Warn-on-Forecast System Accuracy by Storm Age Using Object-Based Verification	6

Large-Sample Application of Radar Reflectivity Object-Based Verification to Evaluate HRRR Warm-Season Forecasts	6
Using ZDR Columns in Forecaster Conceptual Models and Warning Decision-Making	6
Tornadoes in Hurricane Harvey	6
Adaptation of the Predicted Particles Properties (P3) Microphysics Scheme for Large-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction	6
Exploring Convection-Allowing Model Evaluation Strategies for Severe Local Storms Using the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) Model Core	6
Using Artificial Neural Networks to Improve CFS Week-3–4 Precipitation and 2-m Air Temperature Forecasts	6
Hymec: Surface Precipitation Type Estimation at the German Weather Service	6
Evaluation and Usefulness of Lightning Forecasts Made with Lightning Parameterization Schemes Coupled with the WRF Model	6
Performance of 2020 Real-Time Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts from High-Resolution Global-Nested Hurricane Models: HAFS-globalnest and GFDL T-SHiELD	6
Development and Evaluation of Global Korean Aviation Turbulence Forecast Systems Based on an Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Model and In Situ Flight Turbulence Observation Data	6
Implementation of Scale-Dependent Background-Error Covariance Localization in the Canadian Global Deterministic Prediction System	5
Identifying Causes of Short-Range Forecast Errors in Maximum Temperature during Recent Central European Heatwaves Using the ECMWF-IFS Ensemble	5
Postprocessing of NWP Precipitation Forecasts Using Deep Learning	5
An Evaluation of Surface Wind and Gust Forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model	5
A Revised Bourgouin Precipitation-Type Algorithm	5
Impact of SST and Surface Waves on Hurricane Florence (2018): A Coupled Modeling Investigation	5
EFSO at Different Geographical Locations Verified with Observing System Experiments	5
Improving Predictions of Surface Air Temperature Anomalies over Japan by the Selective Ensemble Mean Technique	5
Skill Assessment of NCEP Three-Way Coupled HWRF–HYCOM–WW3 Modeling System: Hurricane Laura Case Study	5
Differences between Severe and Nonsevere Warm-Season, Nocturnal Bow Echo Environments	5
Improving Afternoon Thunderstorm Prediction over Taiwan through 3DVar-Based Radar and Surface Data Assimilation	5
A Decade after Typhoon Morakot (2009): What Have We Learned about Its Physics and Predictability?	5
High-Resolution NWP Forecast Precipitation Comparison over Complex Terrain of the Sierras de Córdoba during RELAMPAGO-CACTI	4
Exploring the Watch-to-Warning Space: Experimental Outlook Performance during the 2019 Spring Forecasting Experiment in NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed	4
Comparing Partial and Continuously Cycling Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation Systems for Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecast Initialization	4
Object-Based Verification of GSI EnKF and Hybrid En3DVar Radar Data Assimilation and Convection-Allowing Forecasts within a Warn-on-Forecast Framework	4
Machine learning classification of significant tornadoes and hail in the U.S. using ERA5 proximity soundings	4
Forecasting Northern Australian Summer Rainfall Bursts Using a Seasonal Prediction System	4
Early Detection of Convective Echoes and Their Development Using a Ka-Band Radar Network	4
Updraft-Based Adaptive Assimilation of Radial Velocity Observations in a Warn-on-Forecast System	4
Climate Normals: Are They Always Communicated Correctly?	4
Calibration of ECMWF Seasonal Ensemble Precipitation Reforecasts in Java (Indonesia) Using Bias-Corrected Precipitation and Climate Indices	4
A New Paradigm for Medium-Range Severe Weather Forecasts: Probabilistic Random Forest–Based Predictions	4
Wind Ramp Events Validation in NWP Forecast Models during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) Using the Ramp Tool and Metric (RT&M)	4
Impacts of Assimilating Additional Reconnaissance Data on Operational GFS Tropical Cyclone Forecasts	4
A Nowcasting Approach for Low-Earth-Orbiting Hyperspectral Infrared Soundings within the Convective Environment	4
Unified ensemble mean forecasting of tropical cyclones based on the feature-oriented mean method	4
Machine Learning–Based Hurricane Wind Reconstruction	4
Winter Surface Air Temperature Prediction over Japan Using Artificial Neural Networks	4
Operational Storm Surge Forecasting at the National Hurricane Center: The Case for Probabilistic Guidance and the Evaluation of Improved Storm Size Forecasts Used to Define the Wind Forcing	4
Evaluating Operational and Experimental HRRR Model Forecasts of Atmospheric River Events in California	4
Object-Based Verification of Atmospheric River Predictions in the Northeast Pacific	4
Evaluation of Seasonal Forecasts for the Fire Season in Interior Alaska	4
National Weather Service Severe Weather Warnings as Threats-in-Motion	4
A Multivariable Convolutional Neural Network for Forecasting Synoptic-Scale Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the South China Sea	4
Diagnosing Supercell Environments: A Machine Learning Approach	4
A Summary of GFS Ensemble Integrated Water Vapor Transport Forecasts and Skill along the U.S. West Coast during Water Years 2017–20	4
Comparison of the Prediction of Indian Monsoon Low Pressure Systems by Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Models	4
Improving Numerical Weather Prediction–Based Near-Cloud Aviation Turbulence Forecasts by Diagnosing Convective Gravity Wave Breaking	4
Evaluating Forecast Performance and Sensitivity to the GSI EnKF Data Assimilation Configuration for the 28–29 May 2017 Mesoscale Convective System Case	4
Characteristics of Diagnostics for Identifying Elevated Convection over the British Isles in a Convection-Allowing Model	4
Improving Best Track Verification of Tropical Cyclones: A New Metric to Identify Forecast Consistency	4
Nowcasting Applications of Geostationary Satellite Hourly Surface PM2.5 Data	4
Verifying and Redefining the Weather Prediction Center’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook Forecast Product	4
A Hybrid Ultra-short-term and Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting Method based on CEEMDAN and GA-BPNN	4
How Does the Relationship between Ambient Deep-Tropospheric Vertical Wind Shear and Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes Change between Coastal and Inland Environments?	4
On the Changes in Convection-Allowing WRF Forecasts of MCS Evolution due to Decreases in Model Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing. Part I: Changes in Cold Pool Evolution	4
Pattern Projection Calibrations on Subseasonal Forecasts of Surface Air Temperature over East Asia	4
An analysis of tornado warning reception and response across time: leveraging respondent's confidence and a nocturnal tornado climatology	3
Warn-on-Forecast System: From Vision to Reality	3
Impact of Assimilating Adaptively Thinned AIRS Cloud-Cleared Radiances on the Analysis of Polar Lows and Mediterranean Sea Tropical-Like Cyclone in a Global Modeling and Data Assimilation Framework	3
Prediction Skill of GEFSv12 for Southwest Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Associated Extreme Rainfall Events on Extended Range Scale over India	3
Applying a Physically Based Blowing Snow Diagnostic Parameterization to Improve Wintertime Visibility Forecasts in the WRF Model	3
Evaluation of Aerosol Optical Depth Forecasts from NOAA’s Global Aerosol Forecast Model (GEFS-Aerosols)	3
Development of an Objective Methodology for Identifying the Sea-Breeze Circulation and Associated Low-Level Jet in the New York Bight	3
Biases in the Prediction of Convective Storm Characteristics with a Convection Allowing Ensemble	3
The Development of a Consensus Machine Learning Model for Hurricane Rapid Intensification Forecasts with Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Data	3
Correction of Monthly SST Forecasts in CFSv2 Using the Local Dynamical Analog Method	3
Short-Term Weather Forecast Skill of Artificial Neural Networks	3
Exploring the Usefulness of Downscaling Free Forecasts from the Warn-on-Forecast System	3
Sub-Severe and Severe Hail	3
Forecasting excessive rainfall with random forests and a deterministic convection-allowing model	3
An Examination of the Impact of Grid Spacing on WRF Simulations of Wintertime Precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic United States	3
Evaluating Foehn Occurrence in a Changing Climate Based on Reanalysis and Climate Model Data Using Machine Learning	3
The Irreplaceable Utility of Sequential Data Assimilation for Numerical Weather Prediction System Development: Lessons Learned from an Experimental HWRF System	3
Simulated QLCS Vortices in a High-Shear, Low-CAPE Environment	3
Subseasonal Prediction of Wintertime Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclone Activity by SubX and S2S Models	3
Impact of WSR-88D Intra-Volume Low-Level Scans on Severe Weather Warning Performance	3
Dynamical–Statistical Prediction of Week-2 Severe Weather for the United States	3
Sensitivity to Localization Radii for an Ensemble Filter Numerical Weather Prediction System with 30-Second Update	3

The Impact of Dropsonde Data on the Performance of the NCEP Global Forecast System during the 2020 Atmospheric Rivers Observing Campaign. Part I: Precipitation	3
Robust worst-case scenarios from ensemble forecasts	3
Initial Perturbations Based on Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter with Rescaling Method for Ensemble Forecasting	3
The National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Model Guidance Suite	3
The Forecast Skill of Tropical Cyclone Genesis in Two Global Ensembles	3
Prediction of Meso-γ-Scale Local Heavy Rain by Ground-Based Cloud Radar Assimilation with Water Vapor Nudging	3
A Calibrated and Consistent Combination of Probabilistic Forecasts for the Exceedance of Several Precipitation Thresholds Using Neural Networks	3
Validation of HWRF-based Probabilistic TC Wind and Precipitation forecasts	3
The Performance of ECMWF Subseasonal Forecasts to Predict the Rainy Season Onset Dates in Vietnam	3
Anticipating Deviant Tornado Motion Using a Simple Hodograph Technique	3
Statistical-Dynamical Forecasting of Sub-Seasonal North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Occurrence	3
Learning from Precipitation Events in the Wider Domain to Improve the Performance of a Deep Learning–Based Precipitation Nowcasting Model	3
A New Horizontal Mixing-Length Formulation for Numerical Simulations of Tropical Cyclones	3
Five-day track forecast skills of WRF model for the western North Pacific tropical cyclones	3
Performance of an Improved TKE-Based Eddy-Diffusivity Mass-Flux (EDMF) PBL Scheme in 2021 Hurricane Forecasts from the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System	3
Freezing Fraction in Freezing Rain	3
Conditional Ensemble Model Output Statistics for Postprocessing of Ensemble Precipitation Forecasting	3
Fast Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction using Searching Optimization of a Numerical Scenario Database	3
Assessing the Influence of Complex Terrain on Severe Convective Environments in Northeastern Alabama	3
History and Development of the USAF Agriculture Meteorology Modeling System and Resulting USAF–NASA Strategic Partnership	3
Environmental Evolution of Long-Lived Supercell Thunderstorms in the Great Plains	3
The Influence of Wildfire Smoke on Cloud Microphysics during the September 2020 Pacific Northwest Wildfires	3
Diagnostics of Tropical Variability for Numerical Weather Forecasts	3
Snowfall Model Validation Using Surface Observations and an Optimal Estimation Snowfall Retrieval	3