OOIR: Observatory of International Research

Papers

(The TQCC of Weather and Forecasting is 4. The table below lists those papers that are above that threshold based on CrossRef citation counts [max. 250 papers]. The publications cover those that have been published in the past four years, i.e., from 2020-04-01 to 2024-04-01.)

Article	Citations
Recent Progress in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting at the National Hurricane Center	74
Use of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model to Forecast Near-Term Regional Temperature and Precipitation	66
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): An Hourly Updating Convection-Allowing Forecast Model. Part I: Motivation and System Description	56
The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System Version 2 (CanSIPSv2)	48
Subseasonal Precipitation Prediction for Africa: Forecast Evaluation and Sources of Predictability	33
Seasonal Forecast Skill of ENSO Teleconnection Maps	33
Near-Ground Wind Profiles of Tornadic and Nontornadic Environments in the United States and Europe from ERA5 Reanalyses	26
A Consensus Approach for Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity from Meteorological Satellites: SATCON	25
The Development of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System Version 12	25
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): An Hourly Updating Convection-Allowing Forecast Model. Part II: Forecast Performance	23
Subseasonal Predictions of Tropical Cyclone Occurrence and ACE in the S2S Dataset	20
On the Analysis of the Performance of WRF and NICAM in a Hyperarid Environment	19
Improving Air Quality Predictions over the United States with an Analog Ensemble	19
Subseasonal Earth System Prediction with CESM2	18
ARPEGE Cloud Cover Forecast Postprocessing with Convolutional Neural Network	17
Deep Learning Experiments for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts	16
Hurricane Forecasting: A Novel Multimodal Machine Learning Framework	16
Subseasonal Forecast of Surface Air Temperature Using Superensemble Approaches: Experiments over Northeast Asia for 2018	16
A Rapid Forecasting and Mapping System of Storm Surge and Coastal Flooding	16
Using a WRF-ADCIRC Ensemble and Track Clustering to Investigate Storm Surge Hazards and Inundation Scenarios Associated with Hurricane Irma	16
A Deep-Learning Model for Automated Detection of Intense Midlatitude Convection Using Geostationary Satellite Images	16
Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold: Assessing the Atmospheric Potential for pyroCb	15
A Machine Learning Tutorial for Operational Meteorology. Part I: Traditional Machine Learning	15
Skill of Global Raw and Postprocessed Ensemble Predictions of Rainfall in the Tropics	15
Understanding Error Distributions of Hurricane Intensity Forecasts during Rapid Intensity Changes	15

What Does a Convection-Allowing Ensemble of Opportunity Buy Us in Forecasting Thunderstorms?	14
Evaluation of the Skill of Monthly Precipitation Forecasts from Global Prediction Systems over the Greater Horn of Africa	14
Unraveling the Mechanism of Extreme (More than 30 Sigma) Precipitation during August 2018 and 2019 over Kerala, India	13
Sensitivities of the WRF Lightning Forecasting Algorithm to Parameterized Microphysics and Boundary Layer Schemes	13
Evaluating Benefits of Two-Way Ocean–Atmosphere Coupling for Global NWP Forecasts	13
A Long Short-Term Memory Model for Global Rapid Intensification Prediction	13
A Simple Model for Predicting the Tropical Cyclone Radius of Maximum Wind from Outer Size	13
A Hazard Multiple: Overlapping Tornado and Flash Flood Warnings in a National Weather Service Forecast Office in the Southeastern United States	13
Verification of Solid Precipitation Forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction Models in Norway	12
A Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Prediction Aid for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s Areas of Responsibility	12
Evaluation of Simulated Winter Precipitation Using WRF-ARW during the ICE-POP 2018 Field Campaign	12
Severe Convective Windstorms in Europe: Climatology, Preconvective Environments, and Convective Mode	12
Evaluation of ECMWF Precipitation Predictions in China during 2015–18	12
Boundary Layer and Surface Verification of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, Version 3	11
WRF Precipitation Performance and Predictability for Systematically Varied Parameterizations over Complex Terrain	11
The Performance of a Revised Simplified Arakawa–Schubert (SAS) Convection Scheme in the Medium-Range Forecasts of the Korean Integrated Model (KIM)	11
Subseasonal Prediction Performance for Austral Summer South American Rainfall	11
Global Within-Season Yield Anomaly Prediction for Major Crops Derived Using Seasonal Forecasts of Large-Scale Climate Indices and Regional Temperature and Precipitation	11
Do Convection-Permitting Ensembles Lead to More Skillful Short-Range Probabilistic Rainfall Forecasts over Tropical East Africa?	11
Development of a Probabilistic Subfreezing Road Temperature Nowcast and Forecast Using Machine Learning	11
Assessing the Skill and Reliability of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Sahelian West Africa	11
A Climatological Analysis of Ambient Deep-Tropospheric Vertical Wind Shear Impacts upon Tornadoes in Tropical Cyclones	10
Real-Time Identification of Equatorial Waves and Evaluation of Waves in Global Forecasts	10
Skill of Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecasts for East Africa	10
Improvement in the Forecasting of Heavy Rainfall over South China in the DSAEF_LTP Model by Introducing the Intensity of the Tropical Cyclone	10
Dynamical Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity Using the FGOALS-f2 Ensemble Prediction System	10
2019 Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts from the Global-Nested Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System: Composite Statistics and Key Events	10
Observations and Predictability of a High-Impact Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainband over Southern California on 2 February 2019	9
NOAA ProbSevere v2.0—ProbHail, ProbWind, and ProbTor	9
Recommendations for Developing Useful and Usable Convection-Allowing Model Ensemble Information for NWS Forecasters	9
Skillful All-Season S2S Prediction of U.S. Precipitation Using the MJO and QBO	9
Parameter Sensitivity of the WRF–LETKF System for Assimilation of Radar Observations: Imperfect-Model Observing System Simulation Experiments	9
Improving Radar-Based Precipitation Nowcasts with Machine Learning Using an Approach Based on Random Forest	9
Toward Unifying Short-Term and Next-Day Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecast Systems with a Continuously Cycling 3-km Ensemble Kalman Filter over the Entire Conterminous United States	9
ENSO Dynamics, Trends, and Prediction Using Machine Learning	9
Two Ensemble Approaches for Forecasting Sulfur Dioxide Concentrations from Kīlauea Volcano	8
A Coffee Yield Next-Generation Forecast System for Rain-Fed Plantations: The Case of the Samalá Watershed in Guatemala	8
Forecasting Convection with a “Scale-Aware” Tiedtke Cumulus Parameterization Scheme at Kilometer Scales	8
Evaluating Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation over Southeast Asia	8
An Evaluation of a Hybrid, Terrain-Following Vertical Coordinate in the WRF-Based RAP and HRRR Models	8
Subseasonal Prediction with and without a Well-Represented Stratosphere in CESM1	8
WSR-88D Tornado Intensity Estimates. Part I: Real-Time Probabilities of Peak Tornado Wind Speeds	8
Forecast Errors and Uncertainties in Atmospheric Rivers	8
Track Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Errors in the COAMPS-TC Model	8
Subseasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere Using a Dynamical Multimodel Ensemble	8
Regional September Sea Ice Forecasting with Complex Networks and Gaussian Processes	8
Observed Relationship between Tornado Intensity and Pretornadic Mesocyclone Characteristics	8
Beyond Strictly Proper Scoring Rules: The Importance of Being Local	8
SWRL Net: A Spectral, Residual Deep Learning Model for Improving Short-Term Wave Forecasts	8
Seasonal Forecast of Early Summer Rainfall at Stations in South China Using a Statistical Downscaling Model	8

A Progress Report on the Development of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble	7
An Impact Study of GNSS RO Data on the Prediction of Typhoon Nepartak (2016) Using a Multiresolution Global Model with 3D-Hybrid Data Assimilation	7
Forecasts of Hurricanes Using Large-Ensemble Outputs	7
WSR-88D Tornado Intensity Estimates. Part II: Real-Time Applications to Tornado Warning Time Scales	7
Identifying Weather Patterns Associated with Increased Volcanic Ash Risk within British Isles Airspace	7
Classification of Precipitation Type in North China Using Model-Based Explicit Fields of Hydrometeors with Modified Thermodynamic Conditions	7
Reforecasting Two Heavy-Precipitation Events with Three Convection-Permitting Ensembles	7
The Naval Research Laboratory’s Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System-Tropical Cyclone Ensemble (COAMPS-TC Ensemble)	7
Sources of Subseasonal Skill and Predictability in Wintertime California Precipitation Forecasts	7
Statistical Calibrations of Surface Air Temperature Forecasts over East Asia using Pattern Projection Methods	7
Assimilation of Radial Velocity from Coastal NEXRAD into HWRF for Improved Forecasts of Landfalling Hurricanes	7
Diurnal and Seasonal Variability of ERA5 Convective Parameters in Relation to Lightning Flash Rates in Poland	6
A Comparison of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecast Verification from Three Global Forecast System (GFS) Operational Configurations	6
The Strong, Dry Winds of Central and Northern California: Climatology and Synoptic Evolution	6
Forecasting Peak Wind Gusts Using Meteorologically Stratified Gust Factors and MOS Guidance	6
Do Machine Learning Approaches Offer Skill Improvement for Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Gust Occurrence and Magnitude?	6
Generating Probabilistic Next-Day Severe Weather Forecasts from Convection-Allowing Ensembles Using Random Forests	6
The Use of the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson in the Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Cyclones	6
Evaluation of Recent NCEP Operational Model Upgrades for Cool-Season Precipitation Forecasting over the Western Conterminous United States	6
Radar Reflectivity–Based Model Initialization Using Specified Latent Heating (Radar-LHI) within a Diabatic Digital Filter or Pre-Forecast Integration	6
Performance of 2020 Real-Time Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts from High-Resolution Global-Nested Hurricane Models: HAFS-globalnest and GFDL T-SHiELD	6
Model Sensitivity during Extreme Positive and Negative Surges in the Río de la Plata Estuary: Highlighting the Need for an Appropriate Hindcast/Forecast System	6
A Quality Assessment of the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) for Aviation	6
Adaptation of the Predicted Particles Properties (P3) Microphysics Scheme for Large-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction	6
A Comparison of Neural-Network and Surrogate-Severe Probabilistic Convective Hazard Guidance Derived from a Convection-Allowing Model	6
Evaluation and Usefulness of Lightning Forecasts Made with Lightning Parameterization Schemes Coupled with the WRF Model	6
Moisture Attribution and Sensitivity Analysis of a Winter Tornado Outbreak	6
Using ZDR Columns in Forecaster Conceptual Models and Warning Decision-Making	6
Improved Prediction of Landfalling Tropical Cyclone in China Based on Assimilation of Radar Radial Winds with New Super-Observation Processing	6
Evaluation of IMERG-E Precipitation Estimates for Fire Weather Applications in Alaska	5
Satellite-Based Nowcasting of West African Mesoscale Storms Has Skill at up to 4-h Lead Time	5
Prototype of a Warn-on-Forecast System for Smoke (WoFS-Smoke)	5
Developing a Climate Prediction System over Southwest China Using the 8-km Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model: System Design, Model Calibration, and Performance Evaluation	5
Assessment of ECMWF Subseasonal Temperature Predictions for an Anomalously Cold Week Followed by an Anomalously Warm Week in Central and Southeastern South America during July 2017	5
Skillful Extended-Range Forecast of Rainfall and Extreme Events in East China Based on Deep Learning	5
Improving Predictions of Surface Air Temperature Anomalies over Japan by the Selective Ensemble Mean Technique	5
A Revised Bourgouin Precipitation-Type Algorithm	5
Synoptic-Scale Environments and Precipitation Morphologies of Tornado Outbreaks from Quasi-Linear Convective Systems in the United Kingdom	5
Operational Precipitation Forecast Over China Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model at a Gray-Zone Resolution: Impact of Convection Parameterization	5
Evaluating the 2019 NARO-APCC Joint Crop Forecasting Service Yield Forecasts for Northern Hemisphere Countries	5
Evaluation and Improvement of a TKE-Based Eddy-Diffusivity Mass-Flux (EDMF) Planetary Boundary Layer Scheme in Hurricane Conditions	5
Quantification of NSSL Warn-on-Forecast System Accuracy by Storm Age Using Object-Based Verification	5
Atmospheric River Reconnaissance 2021: A Review	5
Assessment of the Forecast Skill of Multiphysics and Multistochastic Methods within the GRAPES Regional Ensemble Prediction System in the East Asian Monsoon Region	5
A Machine Learning Tutorial for Operational Meteorology. Part II: Neural Networks and Deep Learning	5
Forecasting Northern Australian Summer Rainfall Bursts Using a Seasonal Prediction System	4
Short-Term Visibility Prediction Using Tree-Based Machine Learning Algorithms and Numerical Weather Prediction Data	4
Identifying Subseasonal Variability Relevant to Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity	4
National Weather Service Severe Weather Warnings as Threats-in-Motion	4
Environmental Evolution of Long-Lived Supercell Thunderstorms in the Great Plains	4
Ensemble Variability in Rainfall Forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011)	4
Development and Evaluation of Global Korean Aviation Turbulence Forecast Systems Based on an Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Model and In Situ Flight Turbulence Observation Data	4
Evaluating Forecast Performance and Sensitivity to the GSI EnKF Data Assimilation Configuration for the 28–29 May 2017 Mesoscale Convective System Case	4
Unified ensemble mean forecasting of tropical cyclones based on the feature-oriented mean method	4
Exploring Convection-Allowing Model Evaluation Strategies for Severe Local Storms Using the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) Model Core	4
Updraft-Based Adaptive Assimilation of Radial Velocity Observations in a Warn-on-Forecast System	4
Calibration of ECMWF Seasonal Ensemble Precipitation Reforecasts in Java (Indonesia) Using Bias-Corrected Precipitation and Climate Indices	4
Hymec: Surface Precipitation Type Estimation at the German Weather Service	4
Implementation of Scale-Dependent Background-Error Covariance Localization in the Canadian Global Deterministic Prediction System	4
Exploring the Watch-to-Warning Space: Experimental Outlook Performance during the 2019 Spring Forecasting Experiment in NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed	4
A New Measure of Ensemble Central Tendency	4
Anticipating Deviant Tornado Motion Using a Simple Hodograph Technique	4
Satellite-Based Observations of Nonlinear Relationships between Vertical Wind Shear and Intensity Changes during the Life Cycle of Hurricane Joaquin (2015)	4
Winter Surface Air Temperature Prediction over Japan Using Artificial Neural Networks	4
Impact of SST and Surface Waves on Hurricane Florence (2018): A Coupled Modeling Investigation	4
Improving Afternoon Thunderstorm Prediction over Taiwan through 3DVar-Based Radar and Surface Data Assimilation	4
A New Paradigm for Medium-Range Severe Weather Forecasts: Probabilistic Random Forest–Based Predictions	4
EFSO at Different Geographical Locations Verified with Observing System Experiments	4
Predicting Rapid Intensification in North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones Using a Convolutional Neural Network	4
Large-Sample Application of Radar Reflectivity Object-Based Verification to Evaluate HRRR Warm-Season Forecasts	4
Comparison of the Prediction of Indian Monsoon Low Pressure Systems by Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Models	4
A Summary of GFS Ensemble Integrated Water Vapor Transport Forecasts and Skill along the U.S. West Coast during Water Years 2017–20	4
Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction with an Encoding-to-Forecasting Deep Learning Model	4
Tornadoes in Hurricane Harvey	4
Object-Based Verification of GSI EnKF and Hybrid En3DVar Radar Data Assimilation and Convection-Allowing Forecasts within a Warn-on-Forecast Framework	4
Early Detection of Convective Echoes and Their Development Using a Ka-Band Radar Network	4