OOIR: Observatory of International Research

Papers

(The H4-Index of International Journal of Forecasting is 37. The table below lists those papers that are above that threshold based on CrossRef citation counts [max. 250 papers]. The publications cover those that have been published in the past four years, i.e., from 2021-05-01 to 2025-05-01.)

Article	Citations
Not feeling the buzz: Correction study of mispricing and inefficiency in online sportsbooks	1020
Survey density forecast comparison in small samples	475
Systemic bias of IMF reserve and debt forecasts for program countries	235
Blending gradient boosted trees and neural networks for point and probabilistic forecasting of hierarchical time series	205
An overview of the effects of algorithm use on judgmental biases affecting forecasting	156
Adaptively aggregated forecast for exponential family panel model	128
Fan charts 2.0: Flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement	111
Forecasting stock market volatility with regime-switching GARCH-MIDAS: The role of geopolitical risks	110
Portfolio selection under non-gaussianity and systemic risk: A machine learning based forecasting approach	105
Forecasting the Covid-19 recession and recovery: Lessons from the financial crisis	105
FRED-SD: A real-time database for state-level data with forecasting applications	81
Towards a real-time prediction of waiting times in emergency departments: A comparative analysis of machine learning techniques	68
FFORMPP: Feature-based forecast model performance prediction	66
Guest editorial: In memory of Professor John Edward Boylan, 1959–2023	63
Responses to the discussions and commentaries of the M5 Special Issue	62
Multi-population mortality projection: The augmented common factor model with structural breaks	58
Forecasting using variational Bayesian inference in large vector autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage	54
Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic	52
A survey of models and methods used for forecasting when investing in financial markets	51
Forecasting government support in Irish general elections: Opinion polls and structural models	50
Machine learning applications in hierarchical time series forecasting: Investigating the impact of promotions	50
The profitability of lead–lag arbitrage at high frequency	49
Too similar to combine? On negative weights in forecast combination	49
A time-varying skewness model for Growth-at-Risk	48
The decrease in confidence with forecast extremity	48

Subjective-probability forecasts of existential risk: Initial results from a hybrid persuasion-forecasting tournament	47
Fundamental determinants of exchange rate expectations	46
Weekly economic activity: Measurement and informational content	45
Nonparametric expected shortfall forecasting incorporating weighted quantiles	45
Tree-based heterogeneous cascade ensemble model for credit scoring	44
Dynamic factor models with clustered loadings: Forecasting education flows using unemployment data	44
Forecasting with gradient boosted trees: augmentation, tuning, and cross-validation strategies	43
A fast and scalable ensemble of global models with long memory and data partitioning for the M5 forecasting competition	42
Macroeconomic data transformations matter	42
Forecasting football results and exploiting betting markets: The case of “both teams to score”	41
Engaging research with practice — An invited editorial	39
Editorial Board	38
The M5 competition: Conclusions	37